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Not sure about that. Breaking it down, I think that all six areas would go Democrat - the Republican bastions of San Diego, Inland Empire, Central Valley, and G

Not sure about that. Breaking it down, I think that all six areas would go Democrat - the Republican bastions of San Diego, Inland Empire, Central Valley, and Greater SLO are all jerrymandered into the larger Democratic areas of LA, Sacramento, and Santa Barabara. Silicon Valley: Strong Democrat West California (Santa Barabara, right?): Medium/Light Dem Jefferson (Humbolt?): Strong Dem South California: Strong Dem Central California: Medium Dem (because of Sacto) North California: Solid Dem (?)

buckbova 13y ago
> South California="Strong Democrat" This is not true. Orange County and San Diego County can go Republican and drag LA County with it. > North California: Solid Dem (?) There are plenty of libertarians here as well. > West California (Santa Barabara, right?): Medium/Light Dem They call this "Central Coast". It's moderate.
- dragonwriter 13y ago
  > > South California="Strong Democrat" > This is not true. Orange County and San Diego County can go Republican and drag LA County with it. Well, except for LA being in West California. Which makes "South California = Strong Democrat" even less true.
ojbyrne 13y ago
If you look at the more detailed map (in a pdf on this article): http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/19/tim-draper-six-californias-secede-silicon-valley-ballot-initiative/ http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/19/tim-draper-six-californias-... you can see that is not the case. LA is included in West California separate from SD/Orange County/etc. South California would be Republican. Sacramento is included in North California, not Central California. Central California would be Republican. At the very least, 2 of the 6 would be Republican leaning.
dubfan 13y ago
> Jefferson (Humbolt?): Strong Dem Humboldt may be strongly Democratic but the rest of the proposed state of Jefferson is quite conservative. The proposed "state of Jefferson" has actually been around for quite a while and includes some conservative areas of southern Oregon as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_%28Pacific_state%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_%28Pacific_state%29
- dragonwriter 13y ago
  The State of Jefferson in the Draper proposal only includes parts of California, despite its naming inspiration.
dragonwriter 13y ago
> Silicon Valley: Strong Democrat Sure (though its a horrible name for the Greater Bay Area as a state.) > West California (Santa Barabara, right?): Medium/Light Dem West CA is the big state in the proposal [1] -- it includes LA. Its pretty solid D. > Jefferson (Humbolt?): Strong Dem If it was just Humboldt and Mendocino, sure. But the rest of Jefferson is strongly Republican. Overall, Jefferson seems pretty red. > South California: Strong Dem South California is strong alright -- strong Republican. The Democratic-leaning parts of Southern California are in West California in the proposal. > Central California: Medium Dem (because of Sacto) Sacramento County itself is only weakly Democratic (Going for Dems in Presidential elections every election since 1992, but for Republicans for Governor every election since 1982 except 1998 and 2010) -- and would probably become less Democratic if a lot of the current state government headquartered there was redistributed out to the other new states. But, in any case, Sacramento County isn't in Central California in the proposal, its in North California. The counties that are in Central California in the proposal would make it a solid red state. > North California: Solid Dem (?) North California's is probably the most competitive state of the six. Its got some strongly Democratic counties, some strongly Republican ones, and Sacramento, which we discussed earlier. Its the one I see as potentially swinging the balance between 4/2 in favor of Republicans to a 3/3 balance. But, either way, its a win for Republicans in the Senate (+2 net margin for them if it goes from 1/0 in California to 3/3 in Six Californias) and potentially much bigger win in terms of Presidential electoral votes. [1] https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/initiatives/pdfs/13-0063%20%2813-0063%20%28Six%20Californias%29%29.pdf https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/initiatives/pdfs/13-0063%20%...?
BryantD 13y ago
I ran the numbers based on voting percentages from the 2012 presidential election. I also added a rough guess at expected House members; hard to guess the breakdown given gerrymandering. Anyhow, yeah, this marginally tosses some electoral votes to the Republicans and you have to expect that South California would be more heavily contested so a bit of a tossup. Central California too, but South California is the big deal. DEM REP DEM % REP % POP HOUSE Jefferson 175,551 187,898 48% 52% 949,240 1 North California 889,742 599,778 60% 40% 3,742,229 5 Central California 542,933 573,944 49% 51% 4,124,776 5 Silicon Valley 1,904,135 608,154 76% 24% 6,597,332 9 West California 2,543,219 1,157,864 69% 31% 11,335,455 15 South California 1,798,705 1,712,320 51% 49% 10,504,924 14
- alexeisadeski3 13y ago
  This is why we love the internet.
- dragonwriter 13y ago
  > I ran the numbers based on voting percentages from the 2012 presidential election. The 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections (that is, the votes for President specifically, not the 2008 and 2012 elections in general) have most parts of the state voting substantially more Democratic than normal (either past Presidential elections or non-Presidential elections in the same period.) That may be a durable Presidential realignment, but I'd be a bit skeptical of that; even if it is, those last two Presidential elections are probably understate the Republican position for anything but Presidential elections (if its not a durable Presidential realignment, it overstates the Republican position even there.)

buckbova 13y ago

> South California="Strong Democrat" This is not true. Orange County and San Diego County can go Republican and drag LA County with it. > North California: Solid Dem (?) There are plenty of libertarians here as well. > West California (Santa Barabara, right?): Medium/Light Dem They call this "Central Coast". It's moderate.

dragonwriter 13y ago
> > South California="Strong Democrat" > This is not true. Orange County and San Diego County can go Republican and drag LA County with it. Well, except for LA being in West California. Which makes "South California = Strong Democrat" even less true.

ojbyrne 13y ago

If you look at the more detailed map (in a pdf on this article): http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/19/tim-draper-six-californias-secede-silicon-valley-ballot-initiative/ http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/19/tim-draper-six-californias-... you can see that is not the case. LA is included in West California separate from SD/Orange County/etc. South California would be Republican. Sacramento is included in North California, not Central California. Central California would be Republican. At the very least, 2 of the 6 would be Republican leaning.

dubfan 13y ago

> Jefferson (Humbolt?): Strong Dem Humboldt may be strongly Democratic but the rest of the proposed state of Jefferson is quite conservative. The proposed "state of Jefferson" has actually been around for quite a while and includes some conservative areas of southern Oregon as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_%28Pacific_state%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_%28Pacific_state%29

dragonwriter 13y ago
The State of Jefferson in the Draper proposal only includes parts of California, despite its naming inspiration.

dragonwriter 13y ago

> Silicon Valley: Strong Democrat Sure (though its a horrible name for the Greater Bay Area as a state.) > West California (Santa Barabara, right?): Medium/Light Dem West CA is the big state in the proposal [1] -- it includes LA. Its pretty solid D. > Jefferson (Humbolt?): Strong Dem If it was just Humboldt and Mendocino, sure. But the rest of Jefferson is strongly Republican. Overall, Jefferson seems pretty red. > South California: Strong Dem South California is strong alright -- strong Republican. The Democratic-leaning parts of Southern California are in West California in the proposal. > Central California: Medium Dem (because of Sacto) Sacramento County itself is only weakly Democratic (Going for Dems in Presidential elections every election since 1992, but for Republicans for Governor every election since 1982 except 1998 and 2010) -- and would probably become less Democratic if a lot of the current state government headquartered there was redistributed out to the other new states. But, in any case, Sacramento County isn't in Central California in the proposal, its in North California. The counties that are in Central California in the proposal would make it a solid red state. > North California: Solid Dem (?) North California's is probably the most competitive state of the six. Its got some strongly Democratic counties, some strongly Republican ones, and Sacramento, which we discussed earlier. Its the one I see as potentially swinging the balance between 4/2 in favor of Republicans to a 3/3 balance. But, either way, its a win for Republicans in the Senate (+2 net margin for them if it goes from 1/0 in California to 3/3 in Six Californias) and potentially much bigger win in terms of Presidential electoral votes. [1] https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/initiatives/pdfs/13-0063%20%2813-0063%20%28Six%20Californias%29%29.pdf https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/initiatives/pdfs/13-0063%20%...?

BryantD 13y ago

I ran the numbers based on voting percentages from the 2012 presidential election. I also added a rough guess at expected House members; hard to guess the breakdown given gerrymandering. Anyhow, yeah, this marginally tosses some electoral votes to the Republicans and you have to expect that South California would be more heavily contested so a bit of a tossup. Central California too, but South California is the big deal. DEM REP DEM % REP % POP HOUSE Jefferson 175,551 187,898 48% 52% 949,240 1 North California 889,742 599,778 60% 40% 3,742,229 5 Central California 542,933 573,944 49% 51% 4,124,776 5 Silicon Valley 1,904,135 608,154 76% 24% 6,597,332 9 West California 2,543,219 1,157,864 69% 31% 11,335,455 15 South California 1,798,705 1,712,320 51% 49% 10,504,924 14

alexeisadeski3 13y ago
This is why we love the internet.
dragonwriter 13y ago
> I ran the numbers based on voting percentages from the 2012 presidential election. The 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections (that is, the votes for President specifically, not the 2008 and 2012 elections in general) have most parts of the state voting substantially more Democratic than normal (either past Presidential elections or non-Presidential elections in the same period.) That may be a durable Presidential realignment, but I'd be a bit skeptical of that; even if it is, those last two Presidential elections are probably understate the Republican position for anything but Presidential elections (if its not a durable Presidential realignment, it overstates the Republican position even there.)