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AGW wouldn't be a black swan by Taleb's definition anyway, which requires it being completely unpredictable and unforeseen, except in hindsight. Accidental dis

AGW wouldn't be a black swan by Taleb's definition anyway, which requires it being completely unpredictable and unforeseen, except in hindsight. Accidental discoveries, like of penicillin, are his best examples. AGW and its effects are more like grey swans - somewhat predictable and foreseen.

Tycho 13y ago
Hmm, the warming itself might be predictable but the side-effects could be a different matter.
- paul_f 13y ago
  What warming? There hasn't been any for 10 years.