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In his books Taleb is weirdly reluctant to address global warming and climate change, which may be the ultimate nonlinear Black Swan system of our age—prone to
by Tycho 13y ago
In his books Taleb is weirdly reluctant to address global warming and climate change, which may be the ultimate nonlinear Black Swan system of our age—prone to sudden shocks that may have catastrophic results. There is a brief mention of the issue on page 415 of Antifragile, but he doesn’t discuss the issue in any detail.
Actually I find Taleb's point about not meddling with complex systems much more persuasive in the AGW debate than the dubious scientific research that gets churned out.
- SkyMarshal 13y agoAGW wouldn't be a black swan by Taleb's definition anyway, which requires it being completely unpredictable and unforeseen, except in hindsight. Accidental discoveries, like of penicillin, are his best examples. AGW and its effects are more like grey swans - somewhat predictable and foreseen.