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It rebounded back to almost same level http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD % change 24hrs, -10% at time of t

by dcc1 13y ago

It rebounded back to almost same level http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD % change 24hrs, -10% at time of this post

presidentender 13y ago
Everybody bought for the bounce, thereby causing the bounce.
- loceng 13y ago
  Thereby perpetuating the illusion of stability - which might all be that's needed to continue with more people adopting it.
  - meowface 13y ago
    I don't know if it'll ever be a stable currency/stock, but at the least, given what you said, it won't become a dead currency/stock (for a long time anyway).
    - edias 13y ago
      >but at the least, given what you said, it won't become a dead currency/stock (for a long time anyway). There is no grantee of that with something as volatile as bitcoin. All it takes is the people playing the market getting burned one to many times and saying fuck it. This could happen tomorrow or never. I really can't think of any investment as risky as bitcoin.
      - fennecfoxen 13y ago
        > I really can't think of any investment as risky as bitcoin. Oh, that's easy. Short-sell some overpriced darling stock like Tesla Motors or Amazon or something and watch the market remain irrational longer than you remain solvent. :)
    - loceng 13y ago
      Exactly. It'll be once investors are done putting money into it. Is there a way to know how much pure investment money has gone into it though? I'm not sure.
  - fennecfoxen 13y ago
    The Flash Crash of 2010 was nondissimilar: stocks were available at a ridiculously good price, and as people realized this, they created buy orders driving back up the price. Bitcoin may be more vulnerable to these crashes than other currencies, commodities, stocks, or similar instruments. It's got a smaller size, lower volume, generally high volatility, and no sophisticated market instruments or automated high-frequency trading algorithms operate to make the market more efficient. (oblig. disclaimer. this post is not a bitcoin advocacy post or a bitcoin hate post, but rather is meant to explore interesting properties of markets.)
edias 13y ago
From my brief observation of bitcoin this seems to be the defining characteristic for bitcoin, crashes followed by rebounds, pretty much since it was created, making me believe that most of bitcoin usage is speculation (is that already confirmed?). Anyway, the question that keeps me from investing a dime into bitcoin is "What if it doesn't rebound?". If it really is being used as an investment vehicle and not a currency, than the answer to that, in my opinion, is eventually it will drop and continue to drop to the point where it's worth pennies on that dollar. With the boom and bust nature, I suspect many people will eventually just give up on it as a currency which would be close to a death sentence for bitcoin. I am heavily biased towards index funds with the lowest fees so I'm rather pessimistic about bitcoin in general, just like I am about playing the stock market. It would be interesting to see what would happen if banks started to care about bitcoin. The market needs to grow many times over but I would expect them to be the only people making consistent money (and not even sometimes) just like they do on the stock market.
- ihsw 13y ago
  There faster, more efficient ways to cause your hair to turn gray and fall out than watching BTC's waxing and waning on an hourly basis. Personally I suggest looking at the 52-week moving average -- it's a lot more comforting and a lot less stressful.
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
- ashray 13y ago
  Not all bitcoin usage is speculation but you are right, most of it's current value is probably reflected through speculation. Now there are two things that give bitcoin it's value: 1. Usage / Adoption 2. Speculation Right now, China seems to have trouble speculating in bitcoin. There is no question of China ever having any usage in the near future given their government's stance on bitcoin. Adoption of bitcoin has been on a steady rise over the past few months. No, apple or amazon are not yet accepting bitcoin but there are a growing number of people who are starting to see why they should accept it and why it's a viable payment method. It's impossible to say what it's value should be based on current adoption. The value right now could be $1 or $1000. My personal investment style is also biased towards low cost index funds.. I'm a Boglehead. However, Bitcoin is the only exception I have made so far. It's one of those rare moments that I personally see value in what the technology brings and can achieve. I'm invested, more in terms of building tools/startups around bitcoin than in just buying and speculating, though I'm guilty of the latter too. It's even more fun because I truly believe in it's potential. (gambling by comparison, is less fun ;))
shin_lao 13y ago
10% drop in a day is considered a big drop.
dragonwriter 13y ago
This: > It rebounded back to almost same level contradicts this: > % change 24hrs, -10% at time of this post -10% change over 24 hrs in a commodity price isn't "almost the same level".
- maaku 13y ago
  It is when that's on par for daily fluctuation.
  - dragonwriter 13y ago
    If that's the typical daily fluctuation, it is still not "about the same level", it just means that the commodity has an extremely unstable value.
  - raganwald 13y ago
    Then it has "Rebounded to within its normal trading range."
tedunangst 13y ago
Where are all the cynics making 2009-era "even a dead cat bounces" comments?
- krapp 13y ago
  Even a dead cat bounces? Then it tumbles? Then it inevitably disintegrates?

by dcc1 13y ago

It rebounded back to almost same level http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD % change 24hrs, -10% at time of this post

presidentender 13y ago

Everybody bought for the bounce, thereby causing the bounce.

loceng 13y ago
Thereby perpetuating the illusion of stability - which might all be that's needed to continue with more people adopting it.
- meowface 13y ago
  I don't know if it'll ever be a stable currency/stock, but at the least, given what you said, it won't become a dead currency/stock (for a long time anyway).
  - edias 13y ago
    >but at the least, given what you said, it won't become a dead currency/stock (for a long time anyway). There is no grantee of that with something as volatile as bitcoin. All it takes is the people playing the market getting burned one to many times and saying fuck it. This could happen tomorrow or never. I really can't think of any investment as risky as bitcoin.
    - fennecfoxen 13y ago
      > I really can't think of any investment as risky as bitcoin. Oh, that's easy. Short-sell some overpriced darling stock like Tesla Motors or Amazon or something and watch the market remain irrational longer than you remain solvent. :)
  - loceng 13y ago
    Exactly. It'll be once investors are done putting money into it. Is there a way to know how much pure investment money has gone into it though? I'm not sure.
- fennecfoxen 13y ago
  The Flash Crash of 2010 was nondissimilar: stocks were available at a ridiculously good price, and as people realized this, they created buy orders driving back up the price. Bitcoin may be more vulnerable to these crashes than other currencies, commodities, stocks, or similar instruments. It's got a smaller size, lower volume, generally high volatility, and no sophisticated market instruments or automated high-frequency trading algorithms operate to make the market more efficient. (oblig. disclaimer. this post is not a bitcoin advocacy post or a bitcoin hate post, but rather is meant to explore interesting properties of markets.)

edias 13y ago

From my brief observation of bitcoin this seems to be the defining characteristic for bitcoin, crashes followed by rebounds, pretty much since it was created, making me believe that most of bitcoin usage is speculation (is that already confirmed?). Anyway, the question that keeps me from investing a dime into bitcoin is "What if it doesn't rebound?". If it really is being used as an investment vehicle and not a currency, than the answer to that, in my opinion, is eventually it will drop and continue to drop to the point where it's worth pennies on that dollar. With the boom and bust nature, I suspect many people will eventually just give up on it as a currency which would be close to a death sentence for bitcoin. I am heavily biased towards index funds with the lowest fees so I'm rather pessimistic about bitcoin in general, just like I am about playing the stock market. It would be interesting to see what would happen if banks started to care about bitcoin. The market needs to grow many times over but I would expect them to be the only people making consistent money (and not even sometimes) just like they do on the stock market.

ihsw 13y ago
There faster, more efficient ways to cause your hair to turn gray and fall out than watching BTC's waxing and waning on an hourly basis. Personally I suggest looking at the 52-week moving average -- it's a lot more comforting and a lot less stressful.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
ashray 13y ago
Not all bitcoin usage is speculation but you are right, most of it's current value is probably reflected through speculation. Now there are two things that give bitcoin it's value: 1. Usage / Adoption 2. Speculation Right now, China seems to have trouble speculating in bitcoin. There is no question of China ever having any usage in the near future given their government's stance on bitcoin. Adoption of bitcoin has been on a steady rise over the past few months. No, apple or amazon are not yet accepting bitcoin but there are a growing number of people who are starting to see why they should accept it and why it's a viable payment method. It's impossible to say what it's value should be based on current adoption. The value right now could be $1 or $1000. My personal investment style is also biased towards low cost index funds.. I'm a Boglehead. However, Bitcoin is the only exception I have made so far. It's one of those rare moments that I personally see value in what the technology brings and can achieve. I'm invested, more in terms of building tools/startups around bitcoin than in just buying and speculating, though I'm guilty of the latter too. It's even more fun because I truly believe in it's potential. (gambling by comparison, is less fun ;))

shin_lao 13y ago

10% drop in a day is considered a big drop.

dragonwriter 13y ago

This: > It rebounded back to almost same level contradicts this: > % change 24hrs, -10% at time of this post -10% change over 24 hrs in a commodity price isn't "almost the same level".

maaku 13y ago
It is when that's on par for daily fluctuation.
- dragonwriter 13y ago
  If that's the typical daily fluctuation, it is still not "about the same level", it just means that the commodity has an extremely unstable value.
- raganwald 13y ago
  Then it has "Rebounded to within its normal trading range."

tedunangst 13y ago

Where are all the cynics making 2009-era "even a dead cat bounces" comments?

krapp 13y ago
Even a dead cat bounces? Then it tumbles? Then it inevitably disintegrates?