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In fairness, there were probably other papers that were not nearly as accurate.

• jfoutz 13y ago
  In fairness, the default stance would be no change at all. I can't find any that said earth would get colder or stay the same. However, that query is hard to google for. Are you saying Hansen just got lucky? The paper is pretty accessible, i found a copy at nasa http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha04600x.html http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha04600x.html The reality is, there are a small vocal minority of people that will reject every climate change claim out of hand. There is no known standard that will satisfy those folks. They don't assign the probability as .0000000001, they assign it as zero. now and forever zero. That seems irrational to me, but maybe they know something i don't. I dunno. Me personally, I'd put a high probability on climate changing, and a slightly lower probability on it being caused by humans. I'd put a low probability on us doing anything about it. I'll be dead before the big consequences kick in, so it really doesn't matter much to me. It's kind of ridiculous i'm wasting time commenting about it given my beliefs about any sort of change, but whatever. I'm inconsistent.