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> Time to go all-in if you haven't already... If every possible outcome confirms your hypothesis, you are not considering the evidence properly. If China hadn'

by jaibot 13y ago

> Time to go all-in if you haven't already... If every possible outcome confirms your hypothesis, you are not considering the evidence properly. If China hadn't moved against Bitcoin, would you think that would make Bitcoin a less attractive speculation?

celticninja 13y ago
going all in is probably not adviseable in any technology investment, but I get his point, the Chinese Government see bitcoin as a way that its citizens can circumvent currency controls and it also affects the exchange rate of the RMB, which is very closely controlled byt he Chinese Government. This doesnt mean that bitcoin is "going to the moon" this means that as a disruptive technology it is making itself known and coming up against predictable barriers. The comment you responded to was a bit "buy buy buy" but the sentiment is just another way of saying "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win"
- jaibot 13y ago
  That sentiment is also often a way to cover for the incoherent belief "P(A|B) > P(A|-B) > P(A|B)".
  - exit 13y ago
    can you expand that for us? what are A and B?
    - jaibot 13y ago
      Any proposition, where A is the thing you want to believe and B/not-B are observations - it's a slightly tongue-in-cheek attempt to mathematically represent the idea that no matter what you see it confirms that you're right.
  - celticninja 13y ago
    I think that depends on your entry point. Perhaps if you got in at $1000 you may be trying to convince yourself, or others, that holding long term makes sense. However if you got in at <$3 and have been holding bitcoin for a period of over 18 months then actually it is not an incoherent belief that it will be worth over $1000 again, it is a projected outcome based on the historic performance of the technology as a currency.
jasonlingx 13y ago
> If China hadn't moved against Bitcoin, would you think that would make Bitcoin a less attractive speculation? Yes. Didn't I just say that?

by jaibot 13y ago

celticninja 13y ago

going all in is probably not adviseable in any technology investment, but I get his point, the Chinese Government see bitcoin as a way that its citizens can circumvent currency controls and it also affects the exchange rate of the RMB, which is very closely controlled byt he Chinese Government. This doesnt mean that bitcoin is "going to the moon" this means that as a disruptive technology it is making itself known and coming up against predictable barriers. The comment you responded to was a bit "buy buy buy" but the sentiment is just another way of saying "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win"

jaibot 13y ago
That sentiment is also often a way to cover for the incoherent belief "P(A|B) > P(A|-B) > P(A|B)".
- exit 13y ago
  can you expand that for us? what are A and B?
  - jaibot 13y ago
    Any proposition, where A is the thing you want to believe and B/not-B are observations - it's a slightly tongue-in-cheek attempt to mathematically represent the idea that no matter what you see it confirms that you're right.
- celticninja 13y ago
  I think that depends on your entry point. Perhaps if you got in at $1000 you may be trying to convince yourself, or others, that holding long term makes sense. However if you got in at <$3 and have been holding bitcoin for a period of over 18 months then actually it is not an incoherent belief that it will be worth over $1000 again, it is a projected outcome based on the historic performance of the technology as a currency.

jasonlingx 13y ago

> If China hadn't moved against Bitcoin, would you think that would make Bitcoin a less attractive speculation? Yes. Didn't I just say that?