4 ms·
Who knows, maybe the example to learn from is not getting scared when you go from $11k to $5.1k and waiting for a month until it's up to $20k. On the other hand
by corin_ 13y ago
Who knows, maybe the example to learn from is not getting scared when you go from $11k to $5.1k and waiting for a month until it's up to $20k. On the other hand, maybe it's that you should sell having only lost $5.9k rather than wait until that $5.1k drops to $5.10.
- Fuxy 13y agoDepends on your wager. If you think bit-coin will never rise again sell now and walk away wounded. But that wager makes no sense at all since people accidentally delete there wallets all the time and there's a limited supply of bit-coins. If you factor in time bit-coin can only go up as long as people are still using it and i have confidence bit-coin will reach wide adoption.
- Nursie 13y agoThe wager makes perfect sense if you don't think BTC will rise again though...
- Bockit 13y agoA case where it would make sense, if bitcoin ends up worth nothing. It doesn't matter if they're scarce when they're still worth nothing. I hope it doesn't end up so, luckily I'm not in a position where I need to try and work it out!
- camus2 13y agoTLDR; you are gambling.
- Fuxy 13y agoI find the odds on this a lot more favorable then a casino in Vegas.
- kybernetikos 13y agoYou suggest that the lesson should be based on the outcome, but actually in the presence of significant random noise/unknowns, that's not always true. It's quite possible to make bad decisions that turn out well and good decisions that turn out badly. To learn the correct lessons, he needs to work out if his original plan was sensible given what he knew (or could reasonably find out) at the time and he's just unlucky, or if the decision to invest was reckless or based on inadequate or wrong information. Having said that, it's so easy to deceive ourselves, that I've heard people say that it's a good idea to work out what would falsify your assumptions before investing. The decision he made was either a good one or a bad one based on the information available to him at the time. That will be true regardless of whether he becomes a billionaire in the next month or goes entirely broke. The true lesson to be learned is not dependent on the outcome.
- babesh 13y agoPart of the available information is that you often understand or know very little. Sometimes judgement that a bubble will take place makes far more money than investing for the long term.