His point was that winning 27 billion in a roulette without ever losing is easier than doing same thing with stocks. His argument that probability of picking ri

His point was that winning 27 billion in a roulette without ever losing is easier than doing same thing with stocks. His argument that probability of picking right color is ~0.5, to do it for 27 times is 1/2^27 - about one in hundred and thirty millions. Now consider stocks - there are over ten thousand choices, only lucky few are winners. So picking the right ones has to be fairly low probability. Now calculate probability of picking only winning stocks for a year as (probability of picking right stocks on any given day)^(244 //number of trading days in a year). That number is way way way smaller than probability we computed for casino option.