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Much easier way you could have done it one night! take 1000 and bet black or red on roulette, then let it ride 27 times and get them all right. easy
by eof 13y ago
Much easier way you could have done it one night!
take 1000 and bet black or red on roulette, then let it ride 27 times and get them all right. easy
- manuelflara 13y agoWell, at some point you would've hit amounts no casino can work with, so even if you could see the future, that's no way to make even $1B :)
- birken 13y agoI think it might also be difficult to sell 263 billion dollars worth of ADBE stock today considering the entire company has a market cap of 30 billion.
- tedunangst 13y agoYou could theoretically plow that much money into call options because there's no physical limit to how many people can write the option and take the opposite position. (ignoring position limits, which the exchange would probably notice at some point.)
- TrainedMonkey 13y agoHis point was that winning 27 billion in a roulette without ever losing is easier than doing same thing with stocks. His argument that probability of picking right color is ~0.5, to do it for 27 times is 1/2^27 - about one in hundred and thirty millions. Now consider stocks - there are over ten thousand choices, only lucky few are winners. So picking the right ones has to be fairly low probability. Now calculate probability of picking only winning stocks for a year as (probability of picking right stocks on any given day)^(244 //number of trading days in a year). That number is way way way smaller than probability we computed for casino option.
- steven2012 13y agoThe same thing goes for the article. You can't put $1B into a stock and take it out at the end of the day, let alone $250B.