This is the most intuitive description I've found:http://lesswrong.com/lw/2b0/bayes_theorem_illustrated_my_way/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/2b0/bayes_theorem_illust

This is the most intuitive description I've found:http://lesswrong.com/lw/2b0/bayes_theorem_illustrated_my_way/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/2b0/bayes_theorem_illustrated_my_way...