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About eight months ago I took the data from the Angel Investor Performance Project(1) and ran it through the powerlaw software(2). The software said the data o
by ganeumann 13y ago
About eight months ago I took the data from the Angel Investor Performance Project(1) and ran it through the powerlaw software(2).
The software said the data on angel funded startups (at least the ones in the AIPP survey) did not indicate that returns followed a power law. Given how often we say "power law!" in regards to startup outcomes, I just thought that was interesting.
(1) http://www.angelcapitalassociation.org/data/Documents/Resources/AngelGroupResarch/1d%20-%20Resources%20-%20Research/6%20RSCH_-_ACEF_-_Returns_to_Angel_Investor_in_Groups.pdf http://www.angelcapitalassociation.org/data/Documents/Resour...
(2) http://code.google.com/p/powerlaw/ http://code.google.com/p/powerlaw/
- kaa2102 13y agoInvestment returns may not follow a power law given that they can come from "normalstan". The distribution of startup values for both funded and unfunded startups (including IPOs AND failures) would come from "extremistan" due to the presence of outliers. The data from extremistan will more likely follow a power law distribution. The terms normal and exstrem-istan come from the writings of Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled By Randomness and Black Swan: Impact of the Highly Improbable.
- klodolph 13y ago> The data from extremistan will more likely follow a power law distribution. That's exactly the kind of logical inference that the linked article warns against, unless you have some additional reasoning behind that assertion.