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I somehow believe according to personal value of Facebook (read none) that it's aiming for its peak. It is a time waster in the time where constructivism is a n
by dejan 17y ago
I somehow believe according to personal value of Facebook (read none) that it's aiming for its peak. It is a time waster in the time where constructivism is a necessity to overcome all present issues. Just take a look at the feeds, it seems to me that it is social gossiping and social gaming rather than anything to do with friends. As (an older) student, I can see the trend that most students are falling in the already mentioned time wasting. Those that graduated though, I don't even see them on Facebook, they are busy doing something, working, building and using their time with physical friends and family.
Facebook's crowd will always be difficult to monetize. I am already pissed of by the banners I see around (never ever clicked one), so the only reason I go there is to notify people of something from time to time. It really has taken the functionality of an Address book, and hell it is annoying climbing up that www for a small piece of information. The board of Facebook says that if they placed more ads they could start earning a lot. I say if they do that, I am a goner same moment. Same if they try to sell me something.
Valuing Facebook in 5 years? Ridiculous. I doubt it will even exist in 5 years in the form of today. I see a major shift in computing coming up in the next few years, and Facebook and Google and all those disconnected clusters of multiple identities merged.
Value of Facebook currently is (-) minus all the money they've spent. I doubt they will ever compensate for that. Investing in Facebook though is a good scheme to launder money.
I also see the next bubble. Overestimation and over-expectations of "startups" and websites that will never create value. I see a clear shift to desktop computing again away from the ill-responsive web.
- tokenadult 17y agoFacebook's crowd will always be difficult to monetize. I have ad-blocking turned on on all websites, by default, so I don't get a good sense of what advertises on Facebook unless I happen to see someone else's Facebook feed (as, for example, a family member's) on a computer without ad blocking turned on. It all looks like schlock. What I have seen on my own home page feed on Facebook is a small number of some of my more remote Facebook friends who go absolutely NUTS over the Facebook quiz applications. I enjoy posting links via the Facebook link application to webpages on the marketing tricks and security holes embedded in Facebook quizzes. (Many thanks to HN readers who post some of those links here on HN.) I'm trying to use positive peer pressure in my circle of Facebook friends to make it uncool to respond to Facebook quizzes at all, and I'm gratified to see that several of my friends immediately put all my new links about the perils of Facebook quizzes up on their personal Facebook feeds. So I think this is the problem: sophisticated users will not only not fall for the schlock on Facebook, they will try to educate their friends about the schlock. I don't know if Facebook has a revenue model that overcomes the cost of serving up lots of pretty pictures and videos to unsophisticated users. (I don't think Facebook is anywhere near as technically savvy about reducing bandwidth or running server farms as Google, but I could be mistaken.) It may be that a lot of the users who have the highest-quality conversations to share will jump ship and find yet another online community--that has happened many times since the 1990s, and I always follow the flight to quality. And, yes, I agree that sometimes Facebook has appallingly poor response time. That might get a lot worse as the user base expands.
- zimbabwe 17y agoI think you're right that over time, pressure will stop people from publishing quizzes publicly. In my own sphere I've seen almost none in the past two weeks. It's like how "tag-other-people" notes got old half a year ago. I agree with all the stuff you said, good points all, but I don't know if I agree about Facebook's serverfarmrunning-bandwidthreduction. They offer a lot of services to their millions of users and they're rarely down. I don't know how to compare them outside of that, but I doubt they're at all poor at this.