If you invest assuming you'll sell 100000 shovels next year and gold rush is over tomorrow, you lost a lot of money. Selling shovels during the gold rush is no

If you invest assuming you'll sell 100000 shovels next year and gold rush is over tomorrow, you lost a lot of money. Selling shovels during the gold rush is not something much safer than drilling for gold itself. It is safer, but not a 100% certain business.