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For convenience, a little more infomation from that page: "According to our estimate, 47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning t
by jliechti1 13y ago
For convenience, a little more infomation from that page:
"According to our estimate, 47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two."
Here are the categories they list:
Management, Business, and Financial
Computer, Engineering, and Science
Education, Legal, Community Service, Arts, and Media
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Service
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative Support
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Construction and Extraction
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Production
Transportation and Material Moving
The ones most susceptible to computerisation (probability > 0.7) seem to be
Sales and Related
Service
Office and Administration Support
Production
Transporation and Material Moving
"Our findings thus imply that as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that are non-susceptible to computerisation – i.e., tasks requiring creative and social intelligence. For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills."
I'm having a hard time thinking of the millions of job openings of this kind.
- csmuk 13y agoHospitality sector is one off the top of my head.
- pfisch 13y agoHow are robots and automation going to replace sales? I find that hard to believe with all the networking and human interaction required.
- bane 13y agoAre they including retail sales associates? When I was a kid you couldn't go shopping anywhere without being molested by a handful of sales people. Now I can walk freely around any department store or costco or best buy or whatever for hours without have to resort to human interaction until checkout (and even then, some stores are self-serve checkout now with 1 person per 4-6 lanes of checkout). If you continue on that trend you're fitting the prediction pretty well.
- tsotha 13y agoAlso one has to question how many of those low-skill workers are capable of "reallocating" to more creative jobs, particularly the older ones.
- mtdewcmu 13y ago>> I'm having a hard time thinking of the millions of job openings of this kind. Supposedly after manufacturing, the economy will naturally transition to services. What I never got about this theory is what would account for the huge increase in demand for services to support such growth. It seems like the thinking is that, since there will be nothing else to drive the economy, services it must be. The people have no bread? Let them eat services!
- dualogy 13y agoOnce we finally fully lost our ability to form bonds with others naturally and with ease, "services" might turn into what's going on in Japan already, stuff like "rent-an-uncle for $10/hr -- he gives life advice and goes to the mall with you". Not kidding, they have that there, targeted at apparently single women.
- mtdewcmu 13y agoI'm concerned that services tend to be luxuries and unreliable sources of work. I don't think they'll replace the manufacturing jobs that supported a stable and growing middle class for decades.