4 ms·

You do realize your same logic applies to looking at a roulette wheel? You can see that it hit a black number 20 times in and feel remorse for not letting 10 d

You do realize your same logic applies to looking at a roulette wheel? You can see that it hit a black number 20 times in and feel remorse for not letting 10 dollars ride all of the way up to 10 million for that run. -25 happiness. You are making the same mistake gamblers and amateur stock pickers make all of the time. It's really sad and it destroys lives and relationships depending on how many people you also convince this is a good deal.

fragsworth 13y ago
Yes, it applies to a roulette wheel in the same way. But even if you played a special roulette wheel where your odds are fair (100% return), a loss of $X more than offsets a gain of $X because the more money you have, the less happy you feel from gaining a specific amount. Conversely, the less money you have, the worse you will feel about losing a flat amount. So playing a fair (50/50) roulette game is still a losing game, in terms of happiness. By my estimates (I may be wrong about the estimates, but they're what I'm going by) - Bitcoin is completely different from roulette. It's more like you get to take one chance on a coin flip. Heads, you win some huge multiple (suppose 100x?) of your bet; tails you lose your bet. How much would you bet on this coin? The only point to argue is what the odds of that coin flip are, and what you'll win if it lands favorably. You may think it's 2x. Others might think it's 10x or 1000x. I believe it will replace the speculation value of gold, so that puts it at a minimum of 350 times its current value. I also believe that it will do way more than replace gold, because of how convenient it is. I also believe that it takes a long time (months to years) for people to understand how it works, and they won't invest until they understand it, so the current market value is far below these estimates. Try to understand my logic here, and tell me if you still think it's totally unreasonable. I can't be convinced of different values. I am putting it at a 50% chance of getting to $500k/BTC in 15 years. So I have a chance to flip this coin; 15 years from now it's 500x my bet or zero. How much should I bet on this coin if I really believe this is accurate?

fragsworth 13y ago

Yes, it applies to a roulette wheel in the same way. But even if you played a special roulette wheel where your odds are fair (100% return), a loss of $X more than offsets a gain of $X because the more money you have, the less happy you feel from gaining a specific amount. Conversely, the less money you have, the worse you will feel about losing a flat amount. So playing a fair (50/50) roulette game is still a losing game, in terms of happiness. By my estimates (I may be wrong about the estimates, but they're what I'm going by) - Bitcoin is completely different from roulette. It's more like you get to take one chance on a coin flip. Heads, you win some huge multiple (suppose 100x?) of your bet; tails you lose your bet. How much would you bet on this coin? The only point to argue is what the odds of that coin flip are, and what you'll win if it lands favorably. You may think it's 2x. Others might think it's 10x or 1000x. I believe it will replace the speculation value of gold, so that puts it at a minimum of 350 times its current value. I also believe that it will do way more than replace gold, because of how convenient it is. I also believe that it takes a long time (months to years) for people to understand how it works, and they won't invest until they understand it, so the current market value is far below these estimates. Try to understand my logic here, and tell me if you still think it's totally unreasonable. I can't be convinced of different values. I am putting it at a 50% chance of getting to $500k/BTC in 15 years. So I have a chance to flip this coin; 15 years from now it's 500x my bet or zero. How much should I bet on this coin if I really believe this is accurate?