> It turns out that for those of us who believe there's a reasonable likelihood (25% or greater) that bitcoins will be very high ($1 million or higher) over its

> It turns out that for those of us who believe there's a reasonable likelihood (25% or greater) that bitcoins will be very high ($1 million or higher) over its lifetime If you're gambling on the hope that all of M1 in the world will be replaced by Bitcoin and actually have come up with any sort of likelihood of that happening then you should reevaluate your ability to have ideas. In your case you think the likelihood is "25% or greater" which is to say you've got some probability distribution of probabilities -- that's not how reasoning about probability works in any high-functioning investing mind. Why can't you just collapse that to an actual percentage? Because it's all just made-up numbers.