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It's comforting to know that this, along with so many other things that most people have to take for granted, doesn't apply to software developers. Our little

It's comforting to know that this, along with so many other things that most people have to take for granted, doesn't apply to software developers. Our little corner of the world is still so employee-friendly that it's really hard to damage your career in any meaningful way if you're truly, provably good at what you do. Certainly not by taking the odd five years off to start a startup, travel the world, or play pickup basketball. You'll still have your network when you decide to come back. Those guys will be nicely distributed across dozens of tech companies, all of which need developers like they need air.

vectorpush 13y ago
It won't last forever. Software development and deployment is becoming easier and easier every day. Between open source, infrastructure in the cloud, PaaS & SaaS, and the plethora of new tools/libraries/frameworks/languages that debut to address specific problems with lightning focus, it has become trivial for an individual to pull off what was impossible for a team 15 years ago. This doesn't even consider the explosion of packaged software targeting business needs directly. I don't think we're so far away from a world where software developers can only realistically find work at software companies as demand for software developers is displaced by... software. In addition to that, increased competition from a global remote work force as well as increased immigration sponsored by the tech lobby is going to crush western developer affluence. In another 15 years, things may be looking pretty grim for the average developer.
- ahomescu1 13y ago
  > It won't last forever. Software development and deployment is becoming easier and easier every day. Between open source, infrastructure in the cloud, PaaS & SaaS, and the plethora of new tools/libraries/frameworks/languages that debut to address specific problems with lightning focus, it has become trivial for an individual to pull off what was impossible for a team 15 years ago. This doesn't even consider the explosion of packaged software targeting business needs directly. I don't think we're so far away from a world where software developers can only realistically find work at software companies as demand for software developers is displaced by... software. Couldn't you have said the same thing 15 years ago? I don't think anything significant has changed since then. Another problem with this thinking is software is never done, it just evolves and changes. It also needs some serious maintenance. Even if the job of software developers will be done by software, someone still needs to maintain and improve that software (unless we get self-writing software, which I don't see any time soon). Another thing that keeps changing is hardware. Switching from computers to phones and tablets and the web created completely new markets for phone and web apps (written in Java/JavaScript) which weren't there a few years ago. Who's to say there aren't going to be new markets a few years from now? (For example, we'll need developers to write Google Glass apps). In addition, even after all this evolution, current frameworks and languages are still horrendous. The most popular languages right now are C++, Java, JavaScript and PHP, all of them horrible to program in (more or less). I think there's still plenty of work to do in this direction.
  - vectorpush 13y ago
    Even if the job of software developers will be done by software, someone still needs to maintain and improve that software Of course; my point is that you need a lot less programmers overall. Where a team was once required, now a staff of one or two will suffice, and this trend will continue as it becomes easier to do more with less. I'm not saying that the professional programmer will cease to exist, rather, I'm suggesting that the employment prospects for developers will inevitably fall in line with other industries. Who's to say there aren't going to be new markets a few years from now? (For example, we'll need developers to write Google Glass apps). I don't think there is much longevity in a "apps for yet-another-platform" future. To-Do lists and tower defense games have lost their novelty and useful/interesting apps are pretty rare. I do see platforms like Google Glass and Occulus Rift as potentially huge markets, but the cost of producing software for these platforms continues to fall right along with the discretionary income of all your potential customers who aren't employed as software engineers. It's a rapid race to the bottom. In addition, even after all this evolution, current frameworks and languages are still horrendous. Except for the burgeoning movement of hip languages and tools you wouldn't describe as "horrible to program in" that has driven the hype and growth behind the contemporary software golden age.

vectorpush 13y ago

It won't last forever. Software development and deployment is becoming easier and easier every day. Between open source, infrastructure in the cloud, PaaS & SaaS, and the plethora of new tools/libraries/frameworks/languages that debut to address specific problems with lightning focus, it has become trivial for an individual to pull off what was impossible for a team 15 years ago. This doesn't even consider the explosion of packaged software targeting business needs directly. I don't think we're so far away from a world where software developers can only realistically find work at software companies as demand for software developers is displaced by... software. In addition to that, increased competition from a global remote work force as well as increased immigration sponsored by the tech lobby is going to crush western developer affluence. In another 15 years, things may be looking pretty grim for the average developer.

ahomescu1 13y ago
> It won't last forever. Software development and deployment is becoming easier and easier every day. Between open source, infrastructure in the cloud, PaaS & SaaS, and the plethora of new tools/libraries/frameworks/languages that debut to address specific problems with lightning focus, it has become trivial for an individual to pull off what was impossible for a team 15 years ago. This doesn't even consider the explosion of packaged software targeting business needs directly. I don't think we're so far away from a world where software developers can only realistically find work at software companies as demand for software developers is displaced by... software. Couldn't you have said the same thing 15 years ago? I don't think anything significant has changed since then. Another problem with this thinking is software is never done, it just evolves and changes. It also needs some serious maintenance. Even if the job of software developers will be done by software, someone still needs to maintain and improve that software (unless we get self-writing software, which I don't see any time soon). Another thing that keeps changing is hardware. Switching from computers to phones and tablets and the web created completely new markets for phone and web apps (written in Java/JavaScript) which weren't there a few years ago. Who's to say there aren't going to be new markets a few years from now? (For example, we'll need developers to write Google Glass apps). In addition, even after all this evolution, current frameworks and languages are still horrendous. The most popular languages right now are C++, Java, JavaScript and PHP, all of them horrible to program in (more or less). I think there's still plenty of work to do in this direction.
- vectorpush 13y ago
  Even if the job of software developers will be done by software, someone still needs to maintain and improve that software Of course; my point is that you need a lot less programmers overall. Where a team was once required, now a staff of one or two will suffice, and this trend will continue as it becomes easier to do more with less. I'm not saying that the professional programmer will cease to exist, rather, I'm suggesting that the employment prospects for developers will inevitably fall in line with other industries. Who's to say there aren't going to be new markets a few years from now? (For example, we'll need developers to write Google Glass apps). I don't think there is much longevity in a "apps for yet-another-platform" future. To-Do lists and tower defense games have lost their novelty and useful/interesting apps are pretty rare. I do see platforms like Google Glass and Occulus Rift as potentially huge markets, but the cost of producing software for these platforms continues to fall right along with the discretionary income of all your potential customers who aren't employed as software engineers. It's a rapid race to the bottom. In addition, even after all this evolution, current frameworks and languages are still horrendous. Except for the burgeoning movement of hip languages and tools you wouldn't describe as "horrible to program in" that has driven the hype and growth behind the contemporary software golden age.