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Well, sure, you can't predict future with 100% certainity. But sometimes you have to make an educated guess. If you have a million dollars to invest, you have t
by kolinko 13y ago
Well, sure, you can't predict future with 100% certainity. But sometimes you have to make an educated guess. If you have a million dollars to invest, you have to speculate - put that into dollars, into some "safe stock", into properties, or at least a small part into Bitcoin?
At least this guy sets himself up to be accountable, compared to a bunch of experts who give vague statements like "Bitcoins are tulips, they will crash!", and then, once Bitcoins fall from $20k to $5k apiece 5 years later, they'll say: "see? I told you!"
- pyalot2 13y agoI actually suspect that the accountable game doesn't work. Have you ever heard of that guy? Nope. Will you ever hear of him again? Well only if he was right... The game works essentially like this. Create N identities for a topic, at each junction of the topic (substantial news, price developments, what have you) you'll have one of the identities make up a prediction that's exactly opposite of another identity. If an identity is now straying into the clearly "wrong" territory, discard it, continue with the identities which have turned out to incidentially make a right prediction. You continue this until you've weeded out all identities but one, which is now endowed with a streak of having made the right predictions. That's when you strike, now it's time to monetize on that belief that you're an expert in some or another fashion.