10 ms·

This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

19 points by bonbon 13y ago

bonbon 13y ago
It says: "It will end - rapidly - in an epic sell-off as people realise that there are no more greater fools above them" I was impressed with his prediction of the first top and drop. But if this will play out like the chart says it will. Well... impressive. What do you think?
- a3voices 13y ago
  It's incorrect since Bitcoin usage is still high. https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses does not look bearish to me
  - bonbon 13y ago
    It was a short term prediction though. If you press play on the right side of the graph, it will update up to present.
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jstalin 13y ago
I wouldn't call this "scary." It's not tough to apply basic technical analysis to charts. It may or may not go down, but TA isn't set in stone and only works in the long run in retrospect. See, e.g., the double top: http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/price-patterns.html http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/price-patterns.html
- subzey 13y ago
  IMO, market cannot be predicted by just drawing lines. So, there's some kind of outstanding luck or magic.
sbokov 13y ago
The accuracy of predicted levels is amazing...
Aardwolf 13y ago
There are max 21 million bitcoins. There are 7 billion people. So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person. So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that (not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as much as an average group of 333 people owns)? Or am I misunderstanding something about currency?
- krisdol 13y ago
  Yeah, you're assuming each of 7 billion people will even have a share of one bitcoin. About half of the 7 billion people today live on less than $2.50 a day, and I don't see how extreme wealth inequality could get anything but worse with bitcoin.
- bonbon 13y ago
  Theoretically right, but once you have bitcoin becoming mainstream currency, there will be different forks/alt coins that are also equally good and digital currency will be widespread instead of just bitcoin. Just a guess..
  - yxhuvud 13y ago
    That is not a 'once' - it is an 'if', and a big one at that.
    - bonbon 13y ago
      there is demand for bitcoin, i agree it is little demand for very few applications. Fad is something else. bitcoin is'nt born perfect but people are trying to solve its problems.
- ErikAugust 13y ago
  I've given this a little thought at least: http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin
throwaway9848 13y ago
Leaving aside the bitcoin angle, this is actually a pretty good primer explanation of the market mechanics and psychology behind technical analysis.
c23gooey 13y ago
> We have experienced all the bullish news that there is and, for now, will be. I think he is being rather short sighted here. Especially with news coming out that the Swiss parliament is investigating its potential to act as a legal currency.
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19 points by bonbon 13y ago

It says: "It will end - rapidly - in an epic sell-off as people realise that there are no more greater fools above them" I was impressed with his prediction of the first top and drop. But if this will play out like the chart says it will. Well... impressive. What do you think?

a3voices 13y ago
It's incorrect since Bitcoin usage is still high. https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses does not look bearish to me
- bonbon 13y ago
  It was a short term prediction though. If you press play on the right side of the graph, it will update up to present.
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]

jstalin 13y ago

I wouldn't call this "scary." It's not tough to apply basic technical analysis to charts. It may or may not go down, but TA isn't set in stone and only works in the long run in retrospect. See, e.g., the double top: http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/price-patterns.html http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/price-patterns.html

subzey 13y ago
IMO, market cannot be predicted by just drawing lines. So, there's some kind of outstanding luck or magic.

sbokov 13y ago

The accuracy of predicted levels is amazing...

Aardwolf 13y ago

There are max 21 million bitcoins. There are 7 billion people. So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person. So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that (not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as much as an average group of 333 people owns)? Or am I misunderstanding something about currency?

krisdol 13y ago
Yeah, you're assuming each of 7 billion people will even have a share of one bitcoin. About half of the 7 billion people today live on less than $2.50 a day, and I don't see how extreme wealth inequality could get anything but worse with bitcoin.
bonbon 13y ago
Theoretically right, but once you have bitcoin becoming mainstream currency, there will be different forks/alt coins that are also equally good and digital currency will be widespread instead of just bitcoin. Just a guess..
- yxhuvud 13y ago
  That is not a 'once' - it is an 'if', and a big one at that.
  - bonbon 13y ago
    there is demand for bitcoin, i agree it is little demand for very few applications. Fad is something else. bitcoin is'nt born perfect but people are trying to solve its problems.
ErikAugust 13y ago
I've given this a little thought at least: http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin

throwaway9848 13y ago

Leaving aside the bitcoin angle, this is actually a pretty good primer explanation of the market mechanics and psychology behind technical analysis.

c23gooey 13y ago

> We have experienced all the bullish news that there is and, for now, will be. I think he is being rather short sighted here. Especially with news coming out that the Swiss parliament is investigating its potential to act as a legal currency.

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