3 ms·
It's strange why my blatantly stupid post was upvoted. I re-read all three problems after you replied and this is what I understood. Talking about Three Prison
by mannicken 17y ago
It's strange why my blatantly stupid post was upvoted.
I re-read all three problems after you replied and this is what I understood. Talking about Three Prisoners' problem since the article's wording doesn't include the very crucial ingredient for easier understanding: coin flip on warden's side.
For A, it doesn't really matter if B or C were executed. In fact, he knew that either B or C are going to be executed for sure. He knew that at least one person who is not him will be executed.
Warden just named the sure-to-be-executed-guy. Didn't change what he previously knew about his chances, since he still doesn't know for sure whether the-other-not-named-guy is going to be executed.
However, the distribution changed for C. Now A still knows that there 1/3 chance of him living but since we know for sure that the-guy-who-warden-named (B or C) will be killed the-guy-who-warden-didn't-name-and-who-isn't-A (C or B) will have 1 - 1/3 = 2/3 probability of living.
- mattmaroon 17y agoCorrect.