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Commodity prices are always unstable. There's a very good reason that only people with specialized needs write contracts in pork bellies, bbls of oil, or other

by hbags 13y ago

Commodity prices are always unstable. There's a very good reason that only people with specialized needs write contracts in pork bellies, bbls of oil, or other highly volatile commodities. BTC is a virtual commodity, and as such it's exceptionally unlikely that it will ever be more stable than other highly volatile commodities.

runeks 13y ago
We're not talking about all commodities: we're talking about money. There's no point in comparing pork bellies to gold: removing an entire year's supply of pork bellies from the market would send the price sky rocketing (in fact, it's probably not even possible since an entire year's supply of pork bellies isn't in stock), while the price of gold would hardly be affected. The stock-to-flow ratio of gold is several orders of magnitude higher than that of non-monetary commodities (indeed that's one of the defining characteristics of money), so changes in supply don't affect them as much. This will also be the case of Bitcoin, in a couple of decades.
- VladRussian2 13y ago
  >We're not talking about all commodities: we're talking about money. BTC isn't money. You make a great comparison of BTC to gold, a commodity. Gold isn't used anymore as money because there isn't enough of it for that role. BTC is in even worse situation. BTC is a great collectible commodity that will be growing in value, like Campbell soup paintings or Ferrari California. Great storage of value, yet not usable as money. The next cryptocurrency which would contain infinite mining, balanced by infinitely increasing complexity, will very possibly make it as a money. It is understandable that BTC in order to crack the glass ceiling and gain trust and acceptance had deflation built-in. Now that POC succeeded the full-featured release is to come (though lets see about alpha/beta/etc... :)
  - sergiosgc 13y ago
    However, if Bitcoin is expected to be completely mined by 2140, then for all intents and purposes it has no glass ceiling. Note that our current post Bretton-Woods system has 42 years, and that Bretton-Woods lasted ~40 years before collapsing (leading some to postulate, with the current crisis, that monetary systems blow up every 40 years). Bitcoin can last 40 years of use without hitting the ceiling.
    - VladRussian2 13y ago
      i meant "glass ceiling" is the acceptance beyond narrow niche of "cyber-punks-nerds"-etc...
baddox 13y ago
What is it about traditional commodities that make them inherently volatile, and does Bitcoin share these qualities? I'm not familiar with commodities markets, but the only thing I can think of that would cause inherent volatility is the inherent volatility of the physical commodities themselves, like crops reliance on weather patterns and oil's reliance on shaky international political relations.
- Goladus 13y ago
  Some possibilities: -Bitcoin is not legal tender. Governments force banks to accept USD to pay debts, no matter what they perceive the dollar's value to be. Meanwhile banks have no obligation to accept bitcoin. This means that bitcoin volatility is more closely tied to perception than currency. This is a trait shared by other commodities. -Bitcoin's finite supply. Once the supply of bitcoins is growing substantially slower than the size of the economy, there will be deflation until demand for bitcoins adjusts. With a fiat currency, money supply can be increased or decreased as the size of the economy changes. In a growing economy, a small level of inflation discourages hoarding and helps ensure that the currency accurately reflects the value of goods and services. People say this means "bitcoins are deflationary" but that's not precisely true. It's true only if the size of the economy using bitcoins for currency is growing. In an economy that is stable and not growing, there should not be much deflation even if there is a finite amount of currency. If the economy grows, then a fiat currency can print money to cover the growth. Bitcoin cannot. Thus, I would predict that unless bitcoin experiences a hoarding/deflationary spiral and crash into irrelevancy, it will wind up stabilizing in a particular niche of the economy, one that will likely become proportionally smaller over time as the world economy grows. This particular niche is likely to grow and contract more frequently than the larger economy meaning that demand for bitcoin will continue to fluctuate more than major fiat currencies. Given bitcoins fixed supply, this means price volatility. Is this identical to other commodities? In some ways, I suppose, but I'm not sure that's a particularly interesting question one way or the other.

by hbags 13y ago

runeks 13y ago

We're not talking about all commodities: we're talking about money. There's no point in comparing pork bellies to gold: removing an entire year's supply of pork bellies from the market would send the price sky rocketing (in fact, it's probably not even possible since an entire year's supply of pork bellies isn't in stock), while the price of gold would hardly be affected. The stock-to-flow ratio of gold is several orders of magnitude higher than that of non-monetary commodities (indeed that's one of the defining characteristics of money), so changes in supply don't affect them as much. This will also be the case of Bitcoin, in a couple of decades.

VladRussian2 13y ago
>We're not talking about all commodities: we're talking about money. BTC isn't money. You make a great comparison of BTC to gold, a commodity. Gold isn't used anymore as money because there isn't enough of it for that role. BTC is in even worse situation. BTC is a great collectible commodity that will be growing in value, like Campbell soup paintings or Ferrari California. Great storage of value, yet not usable as money. The next cryptocurrency which would contain infinite mining, balanced by infinitely increasing complexity, will very possibly make it as a money. It is understandable that BTC in order to crack the glass ceiling and gain trust and acceptance had deflation built-in. Now that POC succeeded the full-featured release is to come (though lets see about alpha/beta/etc... :)
- sergiosgc 13y ago
  However, if Bitcoin is expected to be completely mined by 2140, then for all intents and purposes it has no glass ceiling. Note that our current post Bretton-Woods system has 42 years, and that Bretton-Woods lasted ~40 years before collapsing (leading some to postulate, with the current crisis, that monetary systems blow up every 40 years). Bitcoin can last 40 years of use without hitting the ceiling.
  - VladRussian2 13y ago
    i meant "glass ceiling" is the acceptance beyond narrow niche of "cyber-punks-nerds"-etc...

baddox 13y ago

What is it about traditional commodities that make them inherently volatile, and does Bitcoin share these qualities? I'm not familiar with commodities markets, but the only thing I can think of that would cause inherent volatility is the inherent volatility of the physical commodities themselves, like crops reliance on weather patterns and oil's reliance on shaky international political relations.

Goladus 13y ago
Some possibilities: -Bitcoin is not legal tender. Governments force banks to accept USD to pay debts, no matter what they perceive the dollar's value to be. Meanwhile banks have no obligation to accept bitcoin. This means that bitcoin volatility is more closely tied to perception than currency. This is a trait shared by other commodities. -Bitcoin's finite supply. Once the supply of bitcoins is growing substantially slower than the size of the economy, there will be deflation until demand for bitcoins adjusts. With a fiat currency, money supply can be increased or decreased as the size of the economy changes. In a growing economy, a small level of inflation discourages hoarding and helps ensure that the currency accurately reflects the value of goods and services. People say this means "bitcoins are deflationary" but that's not precisely true. It's true only if the size of the economy using bitcoins for currency is growing. In an economy that is stable and not growing, there should not be much deflation even if there is a finite amount of currency. If the economy grows, then a fiat currency can print money to cover the growth. Bitcoin cannot. Thus, I would predict that unless bitcoin experiences a hoarding/deflationary spiral and crash into irrelevancy, it will wind up stabilizing in a particular niche of the economy, one that will likely become proportionally smaller over time as the world economy grows. This particular niche is likely to grow and contract more frequently than the larger economy meaning that demand for bitcoin will continue to fluctuate more than major fiat currencies. Given bitcoins fixed supply, this means price volatility. Is this identical to other commodities? In some ways, I suppose, but I'm not sure that's a particularly interesting question one way or the other.