Interesting setup. So P(1) == P(2) == 1/6 When A is told that B dies, it's down to 1. or 4. P(1 or 4) == 1/6 + 1/3 == 1/2 So chance A lives is now P(

Interesting setup. So P(1) == P(2) == 1/6 When A is told that B dies, it's down to 1. or 4. P(1 or 4) == 1/6 + 1/3 == 1/2 So chance A lives is now P(1) of P(1 or 4) == 1/6 of 1/2 == 1/3 And the chance C lives is now P(4) of P(1 or 4) == 1/3 of 1/2 == 2/3