4 ms·

The end of Moore's law will probably come at about the same time true human-like AI appears. i.e. It seems like it will always be just a few decades in the fut

by beloch 13y ago

The end of Moore's law will probably come at about the same time true human-like AI appears. i.e. It seems like it will always be just a few decades in the future. e.g. Here's an economist article (sadly, paywalled) predicting that the end was nigh in 1995! http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-17272668.html http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-17272668.html If you extrapolate current designs out then, yes, a size barrier is approaching. So, we should expect new designs to start appearing. For example, non-planar designs offer a lot of potential to reduce average trace-length, which could reduce power dissipation and increase speeds in turn. There are huge challenges to solve, but it is reasonable to expect that they will be met so long as the demand is there. In this light, Moore's law is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. The demand for computational resources grows exponentially, so a way to meet that demand is always found.

tedsanders 13y ago
Just because people were wrong in the past, doesn't mean that people are wrong now. This time, I really do think it's different. Historically, scaling provided a few benefits. As transistors got smaller, they went faster and used less power. They also got cheaper. The first benefit, going faster and more efficient dried up back in the early 2000s when leakage currents because a problem. This is why transistors have been stuck at 3 GHz for so long. The second benefit, cost reduction, is now disappearing. The cost per transistor actually went up with the last node! These days, lithography costs dominate all else. The only way for chips to start getting cheaper is if EUV pans out (so far it's not looking great, but we'll see) or if we radically change the fabrication process and turn transistors sideways (this requires extreme etch control). Even if it is technically feasible to go smaller, unless EUV costs go down it may not be financially feasible.
- nly 13y ago
  > or if we radically change the fabrication process and turn transistors sideways This reminded me so much of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb_PyKuI7II https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb_PyKuI7II
alephnil 13y ago
Moores law is not a physical law. In fact the laws of physics dictates that it can't possibly be going on forever, as there is theoretical limits for how small and fast you can go. Then you can go some more years playing the "cheap" card but even that have to end eventually. The question is when. What is amazing is that it have been allowed to be in effect for nearly 70 years, and still no signs that it have stopped.

by beloch 13y ago

tedsanders 13y ago

Just because people were wrong in the past, doesn't mean that people are wrong now. This time, I really do think it's different. Historically, scaling provided a few benefits. As transistors got smaller, they went faster and used less power. They also got cheaper. The first benefit, going faster and more efficient dried up back in the early 2000s when leakage currents because a problem. This is why transistors have been stuck at 3 GHz for so long. The second benefit, cost reduction, is now disappearing. The cost per transistor actually went up with the last node! These days, lithography costs dominate all else. The only way for chips to start getting cheaper is if EUV pans out (so far it's not looking great, but we'll see) or if we radically change the fabrication process and turn transistors sideways (this requires extreme etch control). Even if it is technically feasible to go smaller, unless EUV costs go down it may not be financially feasible.

nly 13y ago
> or if we radically change the fabrication process and turn transistors sideways This reminded me so much of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb_PyKuI7II https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb_PyKuI7II

alephnil 13y ago

Moores law is not a physical law. In fact the laws of physics dictates that it can't possibly be going on forever, as there is theoretical limits for how small and fast you can go. Then you can go some more years playing the "cheap" card but even that have to end eventually. The question is when. What is amazing is that it have been allowed to be in effect for nearly 70 years, and still no signs that it have stopped.