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I keep seeing this sentiment everywhere. I don't know why people thinks this is a joke, that it is: "illegal," "implausible" and "kind of silly". Yes, Bezos did

by hosh 13y ago

I keep seeing this sentiment everywhere. I don't know why people thinks this is a joke, that it is: "illegal," "implausible" and "kind of silly". Yes, Bezos did this to help boost up sales and set up PR to help the lobbying, but that isn't the only thing about it. Why are people so stuck up on the silliness of the idea? Have people stopped being able to exercise their imagination and executing on it? Just because you can't conceive yourself pulling it off does not mean someone else cannot... Not only do I think Bezos has the imagination and will to pull this off, I know this is being implemented in places outside of the US. It's already happening. Right now. And if it is happening, right now, is it implausible? Is it silly? By the way, I make a distinction between something we can do and something we should do. I am not sure this is something that is good for the world even though I don't think this is a silly idea. I see another facepalm moment coming up when the folks who have been saying this won't happen start screaming angrily that this shouldn't be happening.

redblacktree 13y ago
Where is this already happening?
- MrBuddyCasino 13y ago
  UPS is thinking about it: http://www.theverge.com/2013/12/3/5169878/ups-is-researching-its-own-delivery-drones-to-compete-with-amazons http://www.theverge.com/2013/12/3/5169878/ups-is-researching... So is DHL (german link): http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/DHL-will-in-Bonn-Paketdrohne-testen-2060348.html http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/DHL-will-in-Bonn-Pake... Admittedly, thats still in the prototype phase.
- benologist 13y ago
  http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/18/tech/innovation/zookal-will-deliver-textbooks-using-drones/ http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/18/tech/innovation/zookal-wil...
- paulgb 13y ago
  In Australia, where drones are allowed to fly up to a 122m ceiling, they'll soon be used to deliver textbooks: http://qz.com/152788/australia-and-china-are-way-ahead-of-amazon-in-the-commercial-drone-race/ http://qz.com/152788/australia-and-china-are-way-ahead-of-am...
bhartzer 13y ago
Bezos did this to boost sales and get free publicity. It still is plausible in a few cities in the US, but I'm sure there will be certain locations where it will be prohibited. Why couldn't the drones used for delivery indoors, like in an arena for beer delivery? I could see it being adopted indoors first. For me, it's not a silly idea. Without ideas like this, we won't be pushing the envelope and eventually adopting a similar technology at some point.
- hosh 13y ago
  I've never seen Bezos make a move that did not have at least both a short-term and a long-term effect, if not more. "Bezos did this to boost sales and get free publicity" is a statement underestimating Bezos. The narrative is simply too narrow of scope.
- TrevorJ 13y ago
  Yours seems to be a common sentiment, but I think there are any number of plausible reasons for doing this including: -Leverage in dealing with other forms of last mile delivery when it comes to negotiating costs and contracts. -Kickstarting the necessary legislative framework which will likely take many years to finalize. -Goading other sectors of industry to start developing and testing the tech needed. Remember, Amz, is not shy about simply buying up companies to acquire technology it needs.
baddox 13y ago
People tend to underestimate how fast technological progress can happen, even in the field they specialize in, and even if they're consciously aware of this bias. This is why we see everything from skepticism to outright claims of impossibility about commercial delivery drones, even within the RC model aircraft hobby. These guys have seen electric model flight go from being essentially impossible in the 1990s to dominating the hobby shortly thereafter (thanks mostly to the rise of lithium polymer batteries). Then, mostly in the last 5 years, they've seen model multirotors (quadcopters, hexacopters, etc.) go from being an idea, to being a reality for more hardcore hackers [0], to being easy to assemble from parts with very little electronics knowledge [1], to being off-the-shelf toys for 40 bucks [2] (thanks mostly to the open source community and the rise of cheap smartphone sensors like gyros and GPS). It's hard to believe that even most of the multirotor community thinks that commercial drone delivery is a scifi fantasy, given how far multirotors have advanced in 5 years. Personally, my mind would be blown if this isn't extremely commonplace in another 5 years. [0] http://rcexplorer.se/projects/2010/03/the-tricopter-v1-and-v1-5/ http://rcexplorer.se/projects/2010/03/the-tricopter-v1-and-v... Notice that stabilization is accomplished "manually" with 3 gyroscopes. [1] Thanks mostly to integrated multirotor flight controllers, which contain sensors and a CPU to perform stabilization, like http://www.hobbyking.com/hobbyking/store/__19534__HobbyKing_Multi_Rotor_Control_Board_V2_1_Atmega168PA_.html http://www.hobbyking.com/hobbyking/store/__19534__HobbyKing_.... [2] http://www.amazon.com/Syma-Channel-2-4G-Quad-Copter/dp/B0096SJU3U/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1386279027&sr=8-2&keywords=syma+x1 http://www.amazon.com/Syma-Channel-2-4G-Quad-Copter/dp/B0096...
- 001sky 13y ago
  People tend to underestimate how fast technological progress can happen Counter-example: Internet Bubble 1.0
  - pavel_lishin 13y ago
    Also: flying cars, fusion power plants, manned interplanetary travel.
  - baddox 13y ago
    That wasn't necessarily an underestimation of how fast technological progress can happen. It was more of an economic misestimation.
serfdomroad 13y ago
Seems like a case of - 'First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.'
- rafcavallaro 13y ago
  The only thing being ignored here is the fact that this week SCOTUS let stand New York State's requirement that Amazon collect sales tax. This would have been the big news story about Amazon this week if not for the suspiciously well timed 60 minutes drone and pony show.
  - hosh 13y ago
    Ok. What is the significance of SCOTUS and NY State's requirement that Amazon collect sales tax? I thought Amazon was already moving towards the reality where they are collecting sales tax in all states, and have things in the works where that won't matter as much profit-wise down the road?
    - Zimahl 13y ago
      It doesn't matter to Amazon one bit. Amazon is probably going to open stores in various locations anyways which would make them have to collect taxes in those states. The difference is that now sites like Newegg, which are completely online, will have to start charging and reporting taxes to states that mandate it. It's also a big deal that an individual state can regulate interstate commerce.
      - hosh 13y ago
        I agree with you. However, I'd also like to know @rafcavallaro's reasoning: what is the significance of sales tax ruling, and if it is, what is the significance of covering it up with a 60 Minutes broadcast about drone delivery? I could be wrong about what I am seeing. Or maybe @rafcavallaro's reasoning won't hold up if we actually examine it closely. Won't really know until we hear from the person.
      - 13y ago
Zoomla 13y ago
keep dreaming (I would think that this is only possible right next to a warehouse, and I don't think that it makes sense to have a warehouse on every street corner with every possible products in inventory)

by hosh 13y ago

redblacktree 13y ago

Where is this already happening?

MrBuddyCasino 13y ago
UPS is thinking about it: http://www.theverge.com/2013/12/3/5169878/ups-is-researching-its-own-delivery-drones-to-compete-with-amazons http://www.theverge.com/2013/12/3/5169878/ups-is-researching... So is DHL (german link): http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/DHL-will-in-Bonn-Paketdrohne-testen-2060348.html http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/DHL-will-in-Bonn-Pake... Admittedly, thats still in the prototype phase.
benologist 13y ago
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/18/tech/innovation/zookal-will-deliver-textbooks-using-drones/ http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/18/tech/innovation/zookal-wil...
paulgb 13y ago
In Australia, where drones are allowed to fly up to a 122m ceiling, they'll soon be used to deliver textbooks: http://qz.com/152788/australia-and-china-are-way-ahead-of-amazon-in-the-commercial-drone-race/ http://qz.com/152788/australia-and-china-are-way-ahead-of-am...

bhartzer 13y ago

Bezos did this to boost sales and get free publicity. It still is plausible in a few cities in the US, but I'm sure there will be certain locations where it will be prohibited. Why couldn't the drones used for delivery indoors, like in an arena for beer delivery? I could see it being adopted indoors first. For me, it's not a silly idea. Without ideas like this, we won't be pushing the envelope and eventually adopting a similar technology at some point.

hosh 13y ago
I've never seen Bezos make a move that did not have at least both a short-term and a long-term effect, if not more. "Bezos did this to boost sales and get free publicity" is a statement underestimating Bezos. The narrative is simply too narrow of scope.
TrevorJ 13y ago
Yours seems to be a common sentiment, but I think there are any number of plausible reasons for doing this including: -Leverage in dealing with other forms of last mile delivery when it comes to negotiating costs and contracts. -Kickstarting the necessary legislative framework which will likely take many years to finalize. -Goading other sectors of industry to start developing and testing the tech needed. Remember, Amz, is not shy about simply buying up companies to acquire technology it needs.

baddox 13y ago

People tend to underestimate how fast technological progress can happen, even in the field they specialize in, and even if they're consciously aware of this bias. This is why we see everything from skepticism to outright claims of impossibility about commercial delivery drones, even within the RC model aircraft hobby. These guys have seen electric model flight go from being essentially impossible in the 1990s to dominating the hobby shortly thereafter (thanks mostly to the rise of lithium polymer batteries). Then, mostly in the last 5 years, they've seen model multirotors (quadcopters, hexacopters, etc.) go from being an idea, to being a reality for more hardcore hackers [0], to being easy to assemble from parts with very little electronics knowledge [1], to being off-the-shelf toys for 40 bucks [2] (thanks mostly to the open source community and the rise of cheap smartphone sensors like gyros and GPS). It's hard to believe that even most of the multirotor community thinks that commercial drone delivery is a scifi fantasy, given how far multirotors have advanced in 5 years. Personally, my mind would be blown if this isn't extremely commonplace in another 5 years. [0] http://rcexplorer.se/projects/2010/03/the-tricopter-v1-and-v1-5/ http://rcexplorer.se/projects/2010/03/the-tricopter-v1-and-v... Notice that stabilization is accomplished "manually" with 3 gyroscopes. [1] Thanks mostly to integrated multirotor flight controllers, which contain sensors and a CPU to perform stabilization, like http://www.hobbyking.com/hobbyking/store/__19534__HobbyKing_Multi_Rotor_Control_Board_V2_1_Atmega168PA_.html http://www.hobbyking.com/hobbyking/store/__19534__HobbyKing_.... [2] http://www.amazon.com/Syma-Channel-2-4G-Quad-Copter/dp/B0096SJU3U/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1386279027&sr=8-2&keywords=syma+x1 http://www.amazon.com/Syma-Channel-2-4G-Quad-Copter/dp/B0096...

001sky 13y ago
People tend to underestimate how fast technological progress can happen Counter-example: Internet Bubble 1.0
- pavel_lishin 13y ago
  Also: flying cars, fusion power plants, manned interplanetary travel.
- baddox 13y ago
  That wasn't necessarily an underestimation of how fast technological progress can happen. It was more of an economic misestimation.

serfdomroad 13y ago

Seems like a case of - 'First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.'

rafcavallaro 13y ago
The only thing being ignored here is the fact that this week SCOTUS let stand New York State's requirement that Amazon collect sales tax. This would have been the big news story about Amazon this week if not for the suspiciously well timed 60 minutes drone and pony show.
- hosh 13y ago
  Ok. What is the significance of SCOTUS and NY State's requirement that Amazon collect sales tax? I thought Amazon was already moving towards the reality where they are collecting sales tax in all states, and have things in the works where that won't matter as much profit-wise down the road?
  - Zimahl 13y ago
    It doesn't matter to Amazon one bit. Amazon is probably going to open stores in various locations anyways which would make them have to collect taxes in those states. The difference is that now sites like Newegg, which are completely online, will have to start charging and reporting taxes to states that mandate it. It's also a big deal that an individual state can regulate interstate commerce.
    - hosh 13y ago
      I agree with you. However, I'd also like to know @rafcavallaro's reasoning: what is the significance of sales tax ruling, and if it is, what is the significance of covering it up with a 60 Minutes broadcast about drone delivery? I could be wrong about what I am seeing. Or maybe @rafcavallaro's reasoning won't hold up if we actually examine it closely. Won't really know until we hear from the person.
    - 13y ago

Zoomla 13y ago

keep dreaming (I would think that this is only possible right next to a warehouse, and I don't think that it makes sense to have a warehouse on every street corner with every possible products in inventory)