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People don't care much if pundits are right or wrong. Instead people care that pundits are clear (confident statements help with clarity). Qualifiers are subst
by dennisgorelik 13y ago
People don't care much if pundits are right or wrong.
Instead people care that pundits are clear (confident statements help with clarity).
Qualifiers are substituted by getting multiple opinions from different pundits.
- jacques_chester 13y agoI suppose I should have added that the confident pundits were usually wrong because they tended to make more extreme predictions. Most of the time, stuff doesn't change dramatically. Predicting big shifts all the time means that your overall hit rate is terrible, because big shifts are not the most common case. Luckily there's an extreme predictor for every extreme event, so simple selection happily promotes some loudmouths to guru every now and then.