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I think there's selection bias in the underlying data. The dependent variable (realized success on attempted 4th down conversions) is conditioned on 4th down at
by gerad 13y ago
I think there's selection bias in the underlying data. The dependent variable (realized success on attempted 4th down conversions) is conditioned on 4th down attempts by coaches.
Since coaches are conservative, they're likely to go for fourth down conversions only in cases when they are likely to succeed (due to defensive mismatches, etc).
Hence the model may over-estimate the benefit of going for it on fourth down.
- foobarqux 13y agoMoreoever, the probabilities are likely to change if behavior changes. For example fakes or trick plays become less successful if you do them often.