3 ms·
This is especially true of 4th down plays. A surprise play-action pass on 4th and 1 can go for an especially long gain and thus should have higher expected valu
by altoz 13y ago
This is especially true of 4th down plays. A surprise play-action pass on 4th and 1 can go for an especially long gain and thus should have higher expected value. There's also the fake-punt scenario, which I suspect tends to be more successful than a regular 4th down.
- kosei 13y agoAbsolutely. And I'm sure if coaches started trying to run more 4th down plays, that would dramatically change the algorithm as well.