This was discussed some in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6728821 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6728821 I've thought about it some since then and

This was discussed some in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6728821 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6728821 I've thought about it some since then and I'm also not convinced that expected points is a good metric. That will maximize the expected point differential per season but I am not convinced (although I could be wrong... I haven't put pencil to paper to make my thoughts rigorous) that there are enough possessions in the game on average to make this metric useful even in the first half.