4 ms·
The choice to go for a 4th down conversion is more likely than not primarily decided by the current score and time left in the game. However, the success of a 4
by cheald 13y ago
The choice to go for a 4th down conversion is more likely than not primarily decided by the current score and time left in the game. However, the success of a 4th down conversion probably isn't heavily influenced by those factors (other than perhaps player fatigue), which would suggest that coaches are indeed too conservative.
- 001sky 13y agois more likely than not primarily This seems pretty loose. I'm not trying to be pedantic, but the theoretic flaws in the data are such that you would want a pretty tight logic in your model to have any level of comfort with it. The proportion of the state-space that is unobserved seems ~large and critically relevant.