6 ms·

Will your Michael Jackson tickets be worth more than the refund?

39 points by Flemlord 17y ago

deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
- bdfh42 17y ago
  there is some sound advice in this post - "listen to all of the financial/investment experts and then do the exact opposite". If I had done that consistently over the last few years I would be quite wealthy now.
- ig1 17y ago
  If game theory analysis of the viability of AEG switching to an innovative business model to adapt to a crisis isn't on-topic on HN, I'm not sure what is.
  - revorad 17y ago
    Point taken. I must admit I did not read the article fully, just went by the title. Unflagged.
deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
davidw 17y ago
Something they didn't touch on is the possible size of payouts: if you get your refund, you get N dollars (pounds, I guess, in this case), whereas there is no set upper bound to the ticket. That said, if you look at the comments, some guy did something clever and searched eBay for Elvis tickets, and found them going for $60, which may well mean you'd be better off getting the refund.
- rms 17y ago
  Those Elvis tickets would have gone for more right after Elvis's death if eBay had been around. To properly compare, you would need to find out what Elvis tickets went for in the month after his death.
  - wlievens 17y ago
    ... and correct that for inflation, of course.
  - anigbrowl 17y ago
    Why would be the price be higher when the supply is abundant? I'd have thought it would be a lot harder to find an Elvis ticket 32 years later. And looking on eBay, Elvis tickets are worth quite a bit more than suggested - several hundred dollars, competitive with MJ tickets (I compared completed listings). One factor in favor of Jackson tickets is that the generation that cared most for Elvis is that much older and probably doesn't use eBay as much.
sgibat 17y ago
Not related to the point of the article, but don't most people want to go to bars when they are crowded? I do anyway.
- michael_dorfman 17y ago
  Not when they're too crowded, as Yogi Berra famously pointed out.
wimlard 17y ago
Yeah, but if everyone follows that advice then we're back to square one
- byrneseyeview 17y ago
  No, it depends on the number of iterations the average person expects the average person to expect the average person to go through. See: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~hauert/research/gamelab/twothirds.html http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~hauert/research/gamelab/t... for an estimate of how many iterations that is. And http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest for way more.
rms 17y ago
I ordered three very good (2nd row side stage) tickets for the final show scheduled. I have one of mine scheduled to start on ebay later today with a minimum bid of $150. If I get a bid, I'll list the rest of my tickets. I believe I have at least 30 days to decide and don't see how a strategy can be more optimal than preselling the tickets. You can see a picture of the tickets here: http://www.michaeljacksonlive.com/images/tickets.jpg http://www.michaeljacksonlive.com/images/tickets.jpg. They are printed with a 3d lenticular process.
dunk010 17y ago
Either way people are going to think that they might be, fueling a speculative market on ebay. Wait to see if you can get more than the refund value on there and then dump them and try and make a profit.
icefox 17y ago
There is one huge bit of information missing which makes this whole though process moot. What is the default case? If a ticket owner doesn't do anything do they get their money back or get a ticket? This will determine more then any other factor how many tickets are out on the market. People are really lazy. Assuming that everyone went and selected what they wanted (impossible) we get two cases for the $150 ticket, and two outcomes: - Tickets are worth $5000 -- I keep it : I make a killing (or keep it), either way I have a great story to tell -- I sell it for $150 now. I have a sad story to sell and look foolish if I told other people I sold it. - Tickets are worth $50 - I keep it : I sell it later and loose $100 and either sell it or store it away and never tell anyone. - I sell it: I get all my $150 back, but the story really just comes out that I was lucky. Adding in the ability to have a really good story and piece of history for only $100 seem like a win case.
- rms 17y ago
  Default case is refund
sharpn 17y ago
The Jackson ticket game theory thing is noteworthy - but indirectly discovering that The Times is partially hosted on typepad is more remarkable to me. I'd be interested if other Murdoch papers follow suit.

39 points by Flemlord 17y ago

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

bdfh42 17y ago
there is some sound advice in this post - "listen to all of the financial/investment experts and then do the exact opposite". If I had done that consistently over the last few years I would be quite wealthy now.
ig1 17y ago
If game theory analysis of the viability of AEG switching to an innovative business model to adapt to a crisis isn't on-topic on HN, I'm not sure what is.
- revorad 17y ago
  Point taken. I must admit I did not read the article fully, just went by the title. Unflagged.

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

davidw 17y ago

Something they didn't touch on is the possible size of payouts: if you get your refund, you get N dollars (pounds, I guess, in this case), whereas there is no set upper bound to the ticket. That said, if you look at the comments, some guy did something clever and searched eBay for Elvis tickets, and found them going for $60, which may well mean you'd be better off getting the refund.

rms 17y ago
Those Elvis tickets would have gone for more right after Elvis's death if eBay had been around. To properly compare, you would need to find out what Elvis tickets went for in the month after his death.
- wlievens 17y ago
  ... and correct that for inflation, of course.
- anigbrowl 17y ago
  Why would be the price be higher when the supply is abundant? I'd have thought it would be a lot harder to find an Elvis ticket 32 years later. And looking on eBay, Elvis tickets are worth quite a bit more than suggested - several hundred dollars, competitive with MJ tickets (I compared completed listings). One factor in favor of Jackson tickets is that the generation that cared most for Elvis is that much older and probably doesn't use eBay as much.

sgibat 17y ago

Not related to the point of the article, but don't most people want to go to bars when they are crowded? I do anyway.

michael_dorfman 17y ago
Not when they're too crowded, as Yogi Berra famously pointed out.

wimlard 17y ago

Yeah, but if everyone follows that advice then we're back to square one

byrneseyeview 17y ago
No, it depends on the number of iterations the average person expects the average person to expect the average person to go through. See: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~hauert/research/gamelab/twothirds.html http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~hauert/research/gamelab/t... for an estimate of how many iterations that is. And http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest for way more.

rms 17y ago

I ordered three very good (2nd row side stage) tickets for the final show scheduled. I have one of mine scheduled to start on ebay later today with a minimum bid of $150. If I get a bid, I'll list the rest of my tickets. I believe I have at least 30 days to decide and don't see how a strategy can be more optimal than preselling the tickets. You can see a picture of the tickets here: http://www.michaeljacksonlive.com/images/tickets.jpg http://www.michaeljacksonlive.com/images/tickets.jpg. They are printed with a 3d lenticular process.

dunk010 17y ago

Either way people are going to think that they might be, fueling a speculative market on ebay. Wait to see if you can get more than the refund value on there and then dump them and try and make a profit.

icefox 17y ago

There is one huge bit of information missing which makes this whole though process moot. What is the default case? If a ticket owner doesn't do anything do they get their money back or get a ticket? This will determine more then any other factor how many tickets are out on the market. People are really lazy. Assuming that everyone went and selected what they wanted (impossible) we get two cases for the $150 ticket, and two outcomes: - Tickets are worth $5000 -- I keep it : I make a killing (or keep it), either way I have a great story to tell -- I sell it for $150 now. I have a sad story to sell and look foolish if I told other people I sold it. - Tickets are worth $50 - I keep it : I sell it later and loose $100 and either sell it or store it away and never tell anyone. - I sell it: I get all my $150 back, but the story really just comes out that I was lucky. Adding in the ability to have a really good story and piece of history for only $100 seem like a win case.

rms 17y ago
Default case is refund

sharpn 17y ago

The Jackson ticket game theory thing is noteworthy - but indirectly discovering that The Times is partially hosted on typepad is more remarkable to me. I'd be interested if other Murdoch papers follow suit.