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There's a very strong argument here but the claim appears to rely on the author's expansive definition of "smartphone", in which he encompasses app stores, clou

There's a very strong argument here but the claim appears to rely on the author's expansive definition of "smartphone", in which he encompasses app stores, cloud servers and networks. Perhaps he has a point about the difficulty of investment in taking on these well established players in the field, but I don't feel it's entirely accurate to claim that smartphones themselves cannot be successful. A new phone with a bare-bones linux-like OS designed to piggy-back on existing networks may have a small place in the market, and others like Jolla that seek to grow toward something big may pick up fractions of a percent as well. Even surviving a decade with a low, but consistent, share is a success (e.g., Apple in the 80s). Finally, there's the novelty and growth of industry to consider. The current big players in the smartphone market are already scrambling to address the emerging wearable revolution. The "internet of things" is right on the horizon as well and there's no telling where the chips may land. To be fair, the author did mention innovation as a key to potential success. We should consider the grander implications of a constantly evolving business model and offering in that sentiment, though. It's not just a matter of making a neat new feature, but of the entire game changing every 5 years. While the author makes plenty of good and valid points, I don't think the outlook need be so bleak.

deleted 13y ago
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TheLegace 13y ago
Exactly rather than focusing why a smartphone can't succeed, I'd like to see how and why a phone can succeed. If anyone thinks that the mess in the Play Store and the development environment of Android doesn't leave a bad taste in your mouth they should really re-consider thinking that Android is going to be around forever. I would like to ditch this platform the first moment I get. There are a lot niches that are not addressed by market players today, and the overlap between them can wedge a dent in the market. Google has serious weakness in hardware, and it looks like they will never get over that hump. Can you honestly expect them to optimize performance and battery life, if they can't even make their own devices. Niches like: Open-Source/Flexible development environment Sustainability Emerging Markets Actual Innovation Disruptive technologies and emerging markets shouldn't be counted out either. Nor should finding ways to monetize open-source. People, developers especially are increasingly looking for open platforms/devices, that market is NEVER going to get smaller only bigger. Imagine actually being able to use Javascript or Python or Clojure for your apps, or scripts. Will you actually discount a platform where you can program without managing a thousand configuration files or worry about the gatekeepers(Google/Apple). See these problems aren't necessarily problems in Linux(not to say there aren't other drawbacks). The great(maybe not?) thing about innovation is that if your to busy looking at the technology today your going to completely miss out what is coming next. - At least it's great if your competing. I can't help thinking about what Jobs says, "Experts" are clueless. >Experts—journalists, analysts, consultants, bankers, and gurus can’t “do” so they “advise.” They can tell you what is wrong with your product, but they cannot make a great one. [1] [1]http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20117575-37/what-i-learned-from-steve-jobs/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20117575-37/what-i-learned... People seriously underestimate the power of a great product. Products that don't rely on massive feature lists that mean nothing a day after buying your device. I regret falling into this trap and wasting precious time instead of thinking about creating a better product experience. But again this is easier said than done.
- S4M 13y ago
  What you describe seems exactly like the target of Firefox OS.
  - TheLegace 13y ago
    I actually hate the developing for the web, so FirefoxOS has no real interest for me. I'm grateful for the work those guys are doing, but I will never create HTML5 apps. I'm more of a systems, and robotics programmer and I love it but somehow these interests can never overlap with the way FirefoxOS functions. So there isn't much of a value proposition for me.
- ctdonath 13y ago
  I'd like to see how and why a phone can succeed. There is an enormous market for a good dumb phone. Or, well, idiot savant phone: makes calls, makes calls well, and does nothing but makes calls. Between those who just don't want a smartphone, and those who carry enough computing power to not want yet another Cray 2 in a pocket, there's a large niche for a phone that is just a phone, syncs contacts effortlessly, eliminates every unnecessary/redundant call step, is just the right size & shape, uses every available network aggressively & seamlessly, leverages every service to save money, and has as clear & pristine a sound as makes audiophiles drool. Instead, we have fat folders with idiotic interfaces designed to make you spring for a smartphone just to get something thinner & easier. I saw Smith Corona collapse. A market for typewriters remains to this day, decades later, untapped. Dumbphones are following the same path: a viable market wrecked by an industry dazzled by the sometimes undesirable glitz of a competitor. Whither the iPhone nano? Many want it.
  - matthewmacleod 13y ago
    I don't really believe this market exists. And even if it does, I expect it's tiny - otherwise, manufacturers would be targeting it.
    - pgreenwood 13y ago

deleted 13y ago

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TheLegace 13y ago

Exactly rather than focusing why a smartphone can't succeed, I'd like to see how and why a phone can succeed. If anyone thinks that the mess in the Play Store and the development environment of Android doesn't leave a bad taste in your mouth they should really re-consider thinking that Android is going to be around forever. I would like to ditch this platform the first moment I get. There are a lot niches that are not addressed by market players today, and the overlap between them can wedge a dent in the market. Google has serious weakness in hardware, and it looks like they will never get over that hump. Can you honestly expect them to optimize performance and battery life, if they can't even make their own devices. Niches like: Open-Source/Flexible development environment Sustainability Emerging Markets Actual Innovation Disruptive technologies and emerging markets shouldn't be counted out either. Nor should finding ways to monetize open-source. People, developers especially are increasingly looking for open platforms/devices, that market is NEVER going to get smaller only bigger. Imagine actually being able to use Javascript or Python or Clojure for your apps, or scripts. Will you actually discount a platform where you can program without managing a thousand configuration files or worry about the gatekeepers(Google/Apple). See these problems aren't necessarily problems in Linux(not to say there aren't other drawbacks). The great(maybe not?) thing about innovation is that if your to busy looking at the technology today your going to completely miss out what is coming next. - At least it's great if your competing. I can't help thinking about what Jobs says, "Experts" are clueless. >Experts—journalists, analysts, consultants, bankers, and gurus can’t “do” so they “advise.” They can tell you what is wrong with your product, but they cannot make a great one. [1] [1]http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20117575-37/what-i-learned-from-steve-jobs/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20117575-37/what-i-learned... People seriously underestimate the power of a great product. Products that don't rely on massive feature lists that mean nothing a day after buying your device. I regret falling into this trap and wasting precious time instead of thinking about creating a better product experience. But again this is easier said than done.

S4M 13y ago
What you describe seems exactly like the target of Firefox OS.
- TheLegace 13y ago
  I actually hate the developing for the web, so FirefoxOS has no real interest for me. I'm grateful for the work those guys are doing, but I will never create HTML5 apps. I'm more of a systems, and robotics programmer and I love it but somehow these interests can never overlap with the way FirefoxOS functions. So there isn't much of a value proposition for me.
ctdonath 13y ago
I'd like to see how and why a phone can succeed. There is an enormous market for a good dumb phone. Or, well, idiot savant phone: makes calls, makes calls well, and does nothing but makes calls. Between those who just don't want a smartphone, and those who carry enough computing power to not want yet another Cray 2 in a pocket, there's a large niche for a phone that is just a phone, syncs contacts effortlessly, eliminates every unnecessary/redundant call step, is just the right size & shape, uses every available network aggressively & seamlessly, leverages every service to save money, and has as clear & pristine a sound as makes audiophiles drool. Instead, we have fat folders with idiotic interfaces designed to make you spring for a smartphone just to get something thinner & easier. I saw Smith Corona collapse. A market for typewriters remains to this day, decades later, untapped. Dumbphones are following the same path: a viable market wrecked by an industry dazzled by the sometimes undesirable glitz of a competitor. Whither the iPhone nano? Many want it.
- matthewmacleod 13y ago
  I don't really believe this market exists. And even if it does, I expect it's tiny - otherwise, manufacturers would be targeting it.
  - pgreenwood 13y ago