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"Whatever else this is, it cannot be mere vaporware. " I am unclear on why not, exactly? 4-5 years before it appears, with the obvious possibility that it nev

"Whatever else this is, it cannot be mere vaporware. " I am unclear on why not, exactly? 4-5 years before it appears, with the obvious possibility that it never does for regulatory reasons, technology reasons.... At this point I wouldn't call it vaporware, its not that far along. It is still a fantasy. A nice fantasy. I loved the idea. but, for now, just a fantasy. Check back in 4-5 years (or 5-10 years?) when something has actually been delivered to the market, and lets have a glass of whiskey and be amazed at the futuristic technology.

cynwoody 13y ago
A startup in Australia, Flirtey,† has partnered with a university textbook seller to deliver books via hexacopter on/near campus. They are hoping to begin operation next March. When the drone arrives, the customer presses a button on their smartphone app, and the package is lowered down to them. †http://www.damngeeky.com/2013/10/16/14713/parcel-drone-will-deliver-packages-in-australia-from-march-2014.html http://www.damngeeky.com/2013/10/16/14713/parcel-drone-will-... Video: http://vimeo.com/76606906 http://vimeo.com/76606906
- bandushrew 13y ago
  Yeah, that makes sense to me. Organising something like this in a controlled area like a campus must be a few orders of magnitude simpler than organising something like this across the US. it is a fantastic use of technology, I genuinely hope amazon manages to deliver.
  - downandout 13y ago
    > Organising something like this in a controlled area like a campus must be a few orders of magnitude simpler than organising something like this across the US. Not necessarily. When a new address comes up, a human operator might takes a look at a satellite image of the address and give the drone an appropriate location to land on the property. That data would then be stored. 15 seconds with a human, one time only, is all it would take to make this easy in most neighborhoods.
    - kgen 13y ago
      It wouldn't even need a human operator from Amazon, I would gladly put a marker on a map to show the drone exactly where to drop it if it prompted me upon adding a new address/checkout.
      - downandout 13y ago
        Very good point.
      - Crito 13y ago
        This would also solve the "That nice flat spot in my backyard is where I installed a swimming pool a few months ago" problem.
    - VolatileVoid 13y ago
      That's not at all the problem. What about navigating TFRs? Class B airspace? What about failures of the rotors whilst flying over heavily populated areas? Will these things be equipped with TCAS to avoid oncoming traffic? What happens if the path-finding algorithm to get from Amazon's warehouse to your house goes batshit insane and flies it in the approach path to LAX? Who files the flight plan for each of these things? To quote Steve Yegge, "people will die... if it's YOU... you're going to be really pissed off." [0] [0] http://steve-yegge.blogspot.co.uk/2009/04/have-you-ever-legalized-marijuana.html http://steve-yegge.blogspot.co.uk/2009/04/have-you-ever-lega...
      - danabramov 13y ago
        Thanks for the link, I re-read it with much pleasure.
      - annnnd 13y ago
        Not to mention UFOs. And as someone said, the drones would make archery a very popular sport again. ;)
        silverbax88 13y ago
  - durrrrrrr 13y ago
    If everyone has to go to a certain place to get these items, we could invent a revolutionary new idea. The shop.
    - infinotize 13y ago
      You might even get to talk to a human while you're there!
    - foobarian 13y ago
      You joke, but why not? Rent a small shop and put a landing pad on the roof, which then feeds a vending machine as the storefront. That also solves the authentication problem since it's easy to require a credit card swipe or a smartphone ping to dispense the package.
      - durrrrrrr 13y ago
        Because this is a different invention. The post office.
        intelliot 13y ago
        The post office also ought to use this technology to make mail delivery faster. Today, sending a letter across town takes days, but with drones perhaps it could take minutes.
ansible 13y ago
At this point I wouldn't call it vaporware, its not that far along. Most of the technology to do this is in place now. I won't try to argue that the current generation technology is actually cost-effective for drone delivery, but flight control, navigation, collision avoidance, etc., all exist in some form now. A hexacopter has some robustness (it can be designed to still fly with a single motor failure). Most of the hurdles now are regulatory and economic. I don't know if those can be effectively surmounted, but if anyone can do it, I'm sure Amazon can.
- steveklabnik 13y ago
  All of the technology for Duke Nukem Forever was available. People are just as much of a problem with vaporware products. With the drones, Amazon will have to deal with the tech in various forms, the people problem (shooting them down, capturing them, stealing packages, etc), and the regulatory problem. Five years is an _eternity_ in Internet Time.
  - tomkarlo 13y ago
    Yeah, but it's not very long at all in Retail Time. It's taken us 20 years from Amazon coming online to Internet sales eclipsing retail holiday sales (which I believe is projected for this year.)
    - intelliot 13y ago
      Excellent point. 5 years ago, bitcoin didn't exist. It has come a long way and it has been a long time in Internet Time. Amazon launched in 1994 but it hasn't been very long in Retail Time.
melling 13y ago
I don't think the technology can be that futuristic if companies are already raising money and have products. http://www.forbes.com/sites/rakeshsharma/2013/11/26/growing-the-use-of-drones-in-agriculture/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/rakeshsharma/2013/11/26/growing-... http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/26/3d-robotics-raises-30-million-to-legitimize-aerial-drones-for-business/ http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/26/3d-robotics-raises-30-milli... Granted the ability to deliver directly to homes may face years of legal issues, like self-driving cars. However, there are plenty of problems that can be solved today by current technology, or products that are 12-24 months out, where you don't need FAA approval, like in agriculture.
baddox 13y ago
Why do you consider a 5 year development period to be so long that we should consider it only a fantasy today? I might say that of a product that was promised in something like 25 years, but come on, video games take 5 years to develop. Five years is nothing.

cynwoody 13y ago

A startup in Australia, Flirtey,† has partnered with a university textbook seller to deliver books via hexacopter on/near campus. They are hoping to begin operation next March. When the drone arrives, the customer presses a button on their smartphone app, and the package is lowered down to them. †http://www.damngeeky.com/2013/10/16/14713/parcel-drone-will-deliver-packages-in-australia-from-march-2014.html http://www.damngeeky.com/2013/10/16/14713/parcel-drone-will-... Video: http://vimeo.com/76606906 http://vimeo.com/76606906

bandushrew 13y ago
Yeah, that makes sense to me. Organising something like this in a controlled area like a campus must be a few orders of magnitude simpler than organising something like this across the US. it is a fantastic use of technology, I genuinely hope amazon manages to deliver.
- downandout 13y ago
  > Organising something like this in a controlled area like a campus must be a few orders of magnitude simpler than organising something like this across the US. Not necessarily. When a new address comes up, a human operator might takes a look at a satellite image of the address and give the drone an appropriate location to land on the property. That data would then be stored. 15 seconds with a human, one time only, is all it would take to make this easy in most neighborhoods.
  - kgen 13y ago
    It wouldn't even need a human operator from Amazon, I would gladly put a marker on a map to show the drone exactly where to drop it if it prompted me upon adding a new address/checkout.
    - downandout 13y ago
      Very good point.
    - Crito 13y ago
      This would also solve the "That nice flat spot in my backyard is where I installed a swimming pool a few months ago" problem.
  - VolatileVoid 13y ago
    That's not at all the problem. What about navigating TFRs? Class B airspace? What about failures of the rotors whilst flying over heavily populated areas? Will these things be equipped with TCAS to avoid oncoming traffic? What happens if the path-finding algorithm to get from Amazon's warehouse to your house goes batshit insane and flies it in the approach path to LAX? Who files the flight plan for each of these things? To quote Steve Yegge, "people will die... if it's YOU... you're going to be really pissed off." [0] [0] http://steve-yegge.blogspot.co.uk/2009/04/have-you-ever-legalized-marijuana.html http://steve-yegge.blogspot.co.uk/2009/04/have-you-ever-lega...
    - danabramov 13y ago
      Thanks for the link, I re-read it with much pleasure.
    - annnnd 13y ago
      Not to mention UFOs. And as someone said, the drones would make archery a very popular sport again. ;)
      - silverbax88 13y ago
- durrrrrrr 13y ago
  If everyone has to go to a certain place to get these items, we could invent a revolutionary new idea. The shop.
  - infinotize 13y ago
    You might even get to talk to a human while you're there!
  - foobarian 13y ago
    You joke, but why not? Rent a small shop and put a landing pad on the roof, which then feeds a vending machine as the storefront. That also solves the authentication problem since it's easy to require a credit card swipe or a smartphone ping to dispense the package.
    - durrrrrrr 13y ago
      Because this is a different invention. The post office.
      - intelliot 13y ago
        The post office also ought to use this technology to make mail delivery faster. Today, sending a letter across town takes days, but with drones perhaps it could take minutes.

ansible 13y ago

At this point I wouldn't call it vaporware, its not that far along. Most of the technology to do this is in place now. I won't try to argue that the current generation technology is actually cost-effective for drone delivery, but flight control, navigation, collision avoidance, etc., all exist in some form now. A hexacopter has some robustness (it can be designed to still fly with a single motor failure). Most of the hurdles now are regulatory and economic. I don't know if those can be effectively surmounted, but if anyone can do it, I'm sure Amazon can.

steveklabnik 13y ago
All of the technology for Duke Nukem Forever was available. People are just as much of a problem with vaporware products. With the drones, Amazon will have to deal with the tech in various forms, the people problem (shooting them down, capturing them, stealing packages, etc), and the regulatory problem. Five years is an _eternity_ in Internet Time.
- tomkarlo 13y ago
  Yeah, but it's not very long at all in Retail Time. It's taken us 20 years from Amazon coming online to Internet sales eclipsing retail holiday sales (which I believe is projected for this year.)
  - intelliot 13y ago
    Excellent point. 5 years ago, bitcoin didn't exist. It has come a long way and it has been a long time in Internet Time. Amazon launched in 1994 but it hasn't been very long in Retail Time.

melling 13y ago

I don't think the technology can be that futuristic if companies are already raising money and have products. http://www.forbes.com/sites/rakeshsharma/2013/11/26/growing-the-use-of-drones-in-agriculture/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/rakeshsharma/2013/11/26/growing-... http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/26/3d-robotics-raises-30-million-to-legitimize-aerial-drones-for-business/ http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/26/3d-robotics-raises-30-milli... Granted the ability to deliver directly to homes may face years of legal issues, like self-driving cars. However, there are plenty of problems that can be solved today by current technology, or products that are 12-24 months out, where you don't need FAA approval, like in agriculture.

baddox 13y ago

Why do you consider a 5 year development period to be so long that we should consider it only a fantasy today? I might say that of a product that was promised in something like 25 years, but come on, video games take 5 years to develop. Five years is nothing.