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>"I made 4x on TSLA earlier this year" This implies that you made the round trip (ie bought and sold). If not, you've made exactly zero. So what was it that

>"I made 4x on TSLA earlier this year" This implies that you made the round trip (ie bought and sold). If not, you've made exactly zero. So what was it that you saw, that institutional investors missed, that caused you to buy? What changed with the company's prospects in the past year that caused you to sell recently, and book your profit? Otherwise, you haven't "beaten" anyone.

natural219 13y ago
Yes, I bought TSLA options when the stock was at $30 and sold them for a 4x return. It grew to many more times that, so I could have gotten more. "So what was it that you saw, that institutional investors missed, that caused you to buy?" At the time, there was a large distrust in the financial community that Tesla had the production capacity to meet its Q42012 sales goals (I believe it was between 3-5k Model Ss, they ended up selling 6k). It further followed that Tesla failing to meet its sales goals would undermine investor confidence in the company and squeeze TSLA's operating capital in the coming 1-2 year period. I disagreed with both hypotheses. The funny thing is, my strategy wasn't even smart. I know nothing about Tesla's production capabilities, what the bottlenecks were, or if they were likely to succeed. I assume that information had been priced into the market. Essentially, I bet on Elon Musk. I don't know what the bottlenecks were, I saw the Model S and shit my pants and said "This is awesome" and then I bought options. I really only have one point to make, which is that if you think TSLA going from $30 to $180 / share in less than a year is a completely random, unguessable market move, well, I don't know what to tell you. It's not to me. tldr; http://ycombinator.com/munger.html http://ycombinator.com/munger.html (just kidding, that one is longer)
- evanmoran 13y ago
  This tldr is an extremely interesting essay on wealth, business, and stocks. It is ridiculously long, but takes you amazing places. Definitely worth reading!
- dennisgorelik 13y ago
  Can we discuss it here? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6837713 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6837713

natural219 13y ago

Yes, I bought TSLA options when the stock was at $30 and sold them for a 4x return. It grew to many more times that, so I could have gotten more. "So what was it that you saw, that institutional investors missed, that caused you to buy?" At the time, there was a large distrust in the financial community that Tesla had the production capacity to meet its Q42012 sales goals (I believe it was between 3-5k Model Ss, they ended up selling 6k). It further followed that Tesla failing to meet its sales goals would undermine investor confidence in the company and squeeze TSLA's operating capital in the coming 1-2 year period. I disagreed with both hypotheses. The funny thing is, my strategy wasn't even smart. I know nothing about Tesla's production capabilities, what the bottlenecks were, or if they were likely to succeed. I assume that information had been priced into the market. Essentially, I bet on Elon Musk. I don't know what the bottlenecks were, I saw the Model S and shit my pants and said "This is awesome" and then I bought options. I really only have one point to make, which is that if you think TSLA going from $30 to $180 / share in less than a year is a completely random, unguessable market move, well, I don't know what to tell you. It's not to me. tldr; http://ycombinator.com/munger.html http://ycombinator.com/munger.html (just kidding, that one is longer)

evanmoran 13y ago
This tldr is an extremely interesting essay on wealth, business, and stocks. It is ridiculously long, but takes you amazing places. Definitely worth reading!
dennisgorelik 13y ago
Can we discuss it here? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6837713 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6837713