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>It's all well and good for the unmanned vehicles to fly to a particular GPS site, but how does it then find the package's intended recipient? The drones could

>It's all well and good for the unmanned vehicles to fly to a particular GPS site, but how does it then find the package's intended recipient? The drones could be almost fully automated - fly to this GPS point above the person's house, at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop. >How is the transfer of the package enacted? What stops someone else stealing the package along the way? I'd imagine the same way it's done today, the same way USPS/UPS handles packages - by dropping them on my porch and hoping my neighbors are honest. >And what happens when next door's kid decides to shoot the drone with his BB rifle? He gets a spanking and the drone gets repaired? The same thing that would happen if he shot the tires off the Fedex truck? This article raises some good points about the political ramifications of drone technology, and some excellent ones about it being a PR move to squelch negative reporting, but I'm left with the feeling that, if he were alive a century ago, James Ball wouldn't be out of place writing an article titled "Sears & Roebuck to stop horse-drawn carriage delivery in favor of the automobile? Don't believe the hype".

ye 13y ago
> at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop So now you have to put a camera and a remote control system with a range of many miles on the drone. And it can only work if there's a line of sight. Fail.
- owenmarshall 13y ago
  >So now you have to put a camera and a remote control system with a range of many miles on the drone. And it can only work if there's a line of sight. Pack it in, boys. Until someone develops some sort of wireless technology which we could use to receive information from the drone as well as control it, and deploys it widely across high population-density areas, this drone idea just won't be feasible.
  - ye 13y ago
    You didn't address the weight and the power requirements for it. The range of the drones is already horrible. The costs of controlling drones over the wireless networks would be pretty high too.
    - owenmarshall 13y ago
      >You didn't address the weight and the power requirements for it. Likely nominal. Considering the drone probably has a camera already for routine (non-piloted operations) weight wouldn't be significant. Power wouldn't be huge as wireless service wouldn't be required until the drone is ready to land. Besides, this isn't a long-flight drone. >The range of the drones is already horrible. The range of the drones is likely driven by business, not technology. I'm sure if Amazon is serious about this program they've selected a 10 mile radius from their processing centers as a way to control costs & give the drone high operating time margins. If they do it, and it works, I wouldn't be surprised to see larger runs in the future. >The costs of controlling drones over the wireless networks would be pretty high too. I can't speak to that directly, but don't forget Amazon already subsidizes wireless costs with Whispernet on the Kindle, so I wouldn't be surprised if they've got some good agreements with wireless networks already. Of course the data needs for video is much greater than for sending an ebook, but this is a lower-volume proposition, both in actual wireless use time & customer count.
    - ye 13y ago
      What drone has a 20 mile range with payload, has a camera and a remote control system over wireless networks?
    - Symmetry 13y ago
      The power requirements for a camera and a cell connection are pretty small compared to what it takes to keep that thing in the air. I mean, your phone can go for a full day with it's tiny little battery, and it even has that big power sucking screen to drive too.
  - brentm 13y ago
    I've never researched the exact technology behind military drones but my understanding is they are capable of everything you mentioned being not yet possible. I just can't wrap my head around how these are possible in areas like Manhattan where they would be most useful. Not to mention 4 or 5 years is probably about the understatement of the century as to when it will be permitted by the FAA.
ot 13y ago
> I'd imagine the same way it's done today, the same way USPS/UPS handles packages - by dropping them on my porch and hoping my neighbors are honest. These drones have a 10 miles range, I would guess they are intended for densely populated metropolitan areas where it is viable to have a closeby Amazon warehouse. So in most cases simply there is no porch.
- Jakob 13y ago
  even better, the drones can put the package directly on the window ledge :)
  - AGWeir 13y ago
    But down the chimney on christmas eve of course.
- spiek 13y ago
  Having a drone drop my package on my fire escape would be far better than dropping it on the street. Lots of New Yorkers have trouble getting packages (well, those not rich enough for doormen). Being able to specify a dropoff point would be fantastic. Shit, I'll build a little drone landing pad if I have to.
- benjamta 13y ago
  Which does make me wonder how much better this plan would be than using, say, motorcycle couriers. If the story had been - 'Amazon to deploy motor bikes to deliver packages within 10 miles of their distribution centre' it'd have received a lot less attention. Packages are routinely delivered quickly, accurately, securely and cheaply in urban areas. I do think Amazon are solving a problem that doesn't exist. Nice bit of PR though.
  - patmcc 13y ago
    Motorcycle couriers are comparatively very expensive - a 10 mile delivery is easily half an hour of real human time (plus gas, wear, etc). It might be "cheap" if they're delivering $50 of (high margin) pizza, but less so if they're delivering a single book. That's the problem they're trying to solve - delivering small items quickly and cheaply.
jwr 13y ago
> The drones could be almost fully automated - fly to this GPS point above the person's house, at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop In the real world, you can't "fly to this GPS point". If this were possible, we would have automated airplanes and pilots would be out of their jobs. Remember the real world has other aircraft and a number of interesting obstacles: power lines, lamp posts, fences, trees, cranes, trucks, chimneys, kites and all other kinds of interesting stuff. Flying blind to a preprogrammed GPS location is simply impossible in the real world. Also, remember that GPS isn't quite enough to drop a package right on your doorstep. You need much more than that.
- owenmarshall 13y ago
  >Flying blind to a preprogrammed GPS location is simply impossible in the real world. I didn't intend to rule out the need for clever self-flying technology on the part of Amazon. But comparing the challenges that face an airplane that carries people at very high speeds and altitudes to a low altitude slow-moving drone is pretty silly. Google's self driving car does this at road speed limits. There's no reason a drone doing 20 MPH with an extra degree of freedom couldn't do it as well. >Also, remember that GPS isn't quite enough to drop a package right on your doorstep. You need much more than that. >> at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop
  - raverbashing 13y ago
    >> at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop Good, how? Do you think 4G can allow you to do that? With enough latency? Flying military drones is a very complicated matter. Today civilian drones are flown with visual contact and at close range. So, no.
    - jonlucc 13y ago
      Do I misunderstand this technology? I think the fly to GPS waypoints thing is done by these guys: http://copter.ardupilot.com/ http://copter.ardupilot.com/
amirmc 13y ago
> "... by dropping them on my porch and hoping my neighbors are honest." You wouldn't even need to do this. If you have a garden (even a communal one) then the drone could simply land there instead. Or perhaps a balcony, if large enough. I can imagine Amazon sending you a beacon of some kind which the drone could communicate with when nearby to pinpoint where it's supposed to land.
dspeyer 13y ago
Alternative proposal: take the package to the customer's phone. At this sort of timing, "where I am now" is better than "where I usually am". The customer must have a smartphone and place the order with Amazon's special app. The app then continually uploads the customer's gps data to Amazon so the drone can target. Once the drone gets close, the phone also gives a distinctive beacon using wifi for the drone to hone in on. When it's time to receive the package, the app displays a specific QR code and the drone scans it. It's the customer's responsibility to be outside at the right time, but the app will tell them when to within a few minutes. Likewise, if the phone's battery dies during delivery, the delivery is aborted for a partial refund (the app provides warnings). Some people will worry about accruing "failure to receive" charges due to Amazon's failings, but once a good track record is established, that will fade. Others will worry about the NSA seizing all that location data, but they already have it from the cell phone companies.
DerpDerpDerp 13y ago
I'd pay to have Amazon - and other companies - NOT fly a relatively heavy thing over my property.

ye 13y ago

> at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop So now you have to put a camera and a remote control system with a range of many miles on the drone. And it can only work if there's a line of sight. Fail.

owenmarshall 13y ago
>So now you have to put a camera and a remote control system with a range of many miles on the drone. And it can only work if there's a line of sight. Pack it in, boys. Until someone develops some sort of wireless technology which we could use to receive information from the drone as well as control it, and deploys it widely across high population-density areas, this drone idea just won't be feasible.
- ye 13y ago
  You didn't address the weight and the power requirements for it. The range of the drones is already horrible. The costs of controlling drones over the wireless networks would be pretty high too.
  - owenmarshall 13y ago
    >You didn't address the weight and the power requirements for it. Likely nominal. Considering the drone probably has a camera already for routine (non-piloted operations) weight wouldn't be significant. Power wouldn't be huge as wireless service wouldn't be required until the drone is ready to land. Besides, this isn't a long-flight drone. >The range of the drones is already horrible. The range of the drones is likely driven by business, not technology. I'm sure if Amazon is serious about this program they've selected a 10 mile radius from their processing centers as a way to control costs & give the drone high operating time margins. If they do it, and it works, I wouldn't be surprised to see larger runs in the future. >The costs of controlling drones over the wireless networks would be pretty high too. I can't speak to that directly, but don't forget Amazon already subsidizes wireless costs with Whispernet on the Kindle, so I wouldn't be surprised if they've got some good agreements with wireless networks already. Of course the data needs for video is much greater than for sending an ebook, but this is a lower-volume proposition, both in actual wireless use time & customer count.
  - ye 13y ago
    What drone has a 20 mile range with payload, has a camera and a remote control system over wireless networks?
  - Symmetry 13y ago
    The power requirements for a camera and a cell connection are pretty small compared to what it takes to keep that thing in the air. I mean, your phone can go for a full day with it's tiny little battery, and it even has that big power sucking screen to drive too.
- brentm 13y ago
  I've never researched the exact technology behind military drones but my understanding is they are capable of everything you mentioned being not yet possible. I just can't wrap my head around how these are possible in areas like Manhattan where they would be most useful. Not to mention 4 or 5 years is probably about the understatement of the century as to when it will be permitted by the FAA.

ot 13y ago

> I'd imagine the same way it's done today, the same way USPS/UPS handles packages - by dropping them on my porch and hoping my neighbors are honest. These drones have a 10 miles range, I would guess they are intended for densely populated metropolitan areas where it is viable to have a closeby Amazon warehouse. So in most cases simply there is no porch.

Jakob 13y ago
even better, the drones can put the package directly on the window ledge :)
- AGWeir 13y ago
  But down the chimney on christmas eve of course.
spiek 13y ago
Having a drone drop my package on my fire escape would be far better than dropping it on the street. Lots of New Yorkers have trouble getting packages (well, those not rich enough for doormen). Being able to specify a dropoff point would be fantastic. Shit, I'll build a little drone landing pad if I have to.
benjamta 13y ago
Which does make me wonder how much better this plan would be than using, say, motorcycle couriers. If the story had been - 'Amazon to deploy motor bikes to deliver packages within 10 miles of their distribution centre' it'd have received a lot less attention. Packages are routinely delivered quickly, accurately, securely and cheaply in urban areas. I do think Amazon are solving a problem that doesn't exist. Nice bit of PR though.
- patmcc 13y ago
  Motorcycle couriers are comparatively very expensive - a 10 mile delivery is easily half an hour of real human time (plus gas, wear, etc). It might be "cheap" if they're delivering $50 of (high margin) pizza, but less so if they're delivering a single book. That's the problem they're trying to solve - delivering small items quickly and cheaply.

jwr 13y ago

> The drones could be almost fully automated - fly to this GPS point above the person's house, at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop In the real world, you can't "fly to this GPS point". If this were possible, we would have automated airplanes and pilots would be out of their jobs. Remember the real world has other aircraft and a number of interesting obstacles: power lines, lamp posts, fences, trees, cranes, trucks, chimneys, kites and all other kinds of interesting stuff. Flying blind to a preprogrammed GPS location is simply impossible in the real world. Also, remember that GPS isn't quite enough to drop a package right on your doorstep. You need much more than that.

owenmarshall 13y ago
>Flying blind to a preprogrammed GPS location is simply impossible in the real world. I didn't intend to rule out the need for clever self-flying technology on the part of Amazon. But comparing the challenges that face an airplane that carries people at very high speeds and altitudes to a low altitude slow-moving drone is pretty silly. Google's self driving car does this at road speed limits. There's no reason a drone doing 20 MPH with an extra degree of freedom couldn't do it as well. >Also, remember that GPS isn't quite enough to drop a package right on your doorstep. You need much more than that. >> at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop
- raverbashing 13y ago
  >> at which point control is handed to a pilot for the landing & package drop Good, how? Do you think 4G can allow you to do that? With enough latency? Flying military drones is a very complicated matter. Today civilian drones are flown with visual contact and at close range. So, no.
  - jonlucc 13y ago
    Do I misunderstand this technology? I think the fly to GPS waypoints thing is done by these guys: http://copter.ardupilot.com/ http://copter.ardupilot.com/

amirmc 13y ago

> "... by dropping them on my porch and hoping my neighbors are honest." You wouldn't even need to do this. If you have a garden (even a communal one) then the drone could simply land there instead. Or perhaps a balcony, if large enough. I can imagine Amazon sending you a beacon of some kind which the drone could communicate with when nearby to pinpoint where it's supposed to land.

dspeyer 13y ago

Alternative proposal: take the package to the customer's phone. At this sort of timing, "where I am now" is better than "where I usually am". The customer must have a smartphone and place the order with Amazon's special app. The app then continually uploads the customer's gps data to Amazon so the drone can target. Once the drone gets close, the phone also gives a distinctive beacon using wifi for the drone to hone in on. When it's time to receive the package, the app displays a specific QR code and the drone scans it. It's the customer's responsibility to be outside at the right time, but the app will tell them when to within a few minutes. Likewise, if the phone's battery dies during delivery, the delivery is aborted for a partial refund (the app provides warnings). Some people will worry about accruing "failure to receive" charges due to Amazon's failings, but once a good track record is established, that will fade. Others will worry about the NSA seizing all that location data, but they already have it from the cell phone companies.

DerpDerpDerp 13y ago

I'd pay to have Amazon - and other companies - NOT fly a relatively heavy thing over my property.