We've been doing a rigorous study of the performance of "the experts" at http://backrecord.com http://backrecord.com . Some results so far: (1) we have no evide

We've been doing a rigorous study of the performance of "the experts" at http://backrecord.com http://backrecord.com . Some results so far: (1) we have no evidence that anyone (via publicly available statements) can time broad market movements, including people who are widely implied by the media as being able to do so. (2) no evidence that anyone can predict anything on a short timescale (< 1 year). (3) Assuming no selection bias [not necessarily a very good assumption], enough statistical evidence to suggest a minority of market commentators can beat the market on longer timescales that we feel it is worth pushing the study further.