A couple of the statements are inaccurate or a bit hyperbolic: - "In other words, the answer to "do we believe that our stock selection ability is significantl

A couple of the statements are inaccurate or a bit hyperbolic: - "In other words, the answer to "do we believe that our stock selection ability is significantly above average?" has to be a resounding, objectively justified "yes." " -- Actually, our "selection ability" doesn't need to be above average, since the average stock picker is not picking index funds. Index funds are used to proxy the average of the product (market), not the professional investor. Since index funds are the theoretical alternative, that's all we'd need to beat. - It probably doesn't change the overall point about IPOs, but I don't think having or lacking a "desperation" for money changes anything. What it all really boils down to is this: virtually all the information is already "baked in" to every stock price out there. There's no guaranteed bet, ever. If you aren't living and breathing the markets, it's extremely unlikely you'll be able to account for the market forces in a way that others haven't already. So really "the rest of us" are just guessing. The only justification for an amateur to play the markets is for fun - like sitting down at a Blackjack table in Vegas.