Speculation is a common strategy, you may win or lose, but believing that it is a 'sure thing' is a bet that markets are irrational, where risk/return models do

Speculation is a common strategy, you may win or lose, but believing that it is a 'sure thing' is a bet that markets are irrational, where risk/return models do not apply. You may be right, but this has never been proven, despite ample efforts.