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I'm going to be a contrarian on this one. Markets are clearly more efficient at the top (and all but the most inclined wont be running their own hedge funds).
by drinkzima 13y ago
I'm going to be a contrarian on this one.
Markets are clearly more efficient at the top (and all but the most inclined wont be running their own hedge funds). Buffetts, Paulsons, etc cannot just move into a position on a whim. They thus require more asymmetric information for a trade to make sense.
Inversely, smaller traders avoid the enormous position sizes that can make transacting difficult, and thus can benefit from increased mobility in the markets. This means less lucrative information advantages can be harnessed more easily. Additionally, there are inefficiencies that simply cannot be realized by large funds (see the Norilsk Nickel tender in 2011, "free" money for small investors: http://kiddynamitesworld.com/norilsk-nickel-russian-odd-lot-arbitrage-anatomy-of-a-trade/ http://kiddynamitesworld.com/norilsk-nickel-russian-odd-lot-...).
I'll temper my entire statement by saying I agree with you for 99% of the population, but I do think people too easily punt on efficient market theory. I do believe the small, inclined trader can profit.
- shortsleeves 13y agoNot to mention that the efficient market theory completely fails to explain the most basic boom-bust cycles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis#Criticism_and_behavioral_finance http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis#Cri...
- nickff 13y agoNo one has ever explained the cyclical recessions which we all observe; the efficient markets hypothesis does not directly address it.