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This is an awesome idea of course. It's a glimpse into the future. I remember tweeting with Chris Anderson of 3D Robotics about a year ago about autonomous pac
by dakrisht 13y ago
This is an awesome idea of course. It's a glimpse into the future.
I remember tweeting with Chris Anderson of 3D Robotics about a year ago about autonomous package delivery from A > B. I'm sure Bezos and team started nerding out on this concept years ago.
Eventually, "vehicles" the size of UPS trucks will be delivering packages autonomously all over the world. This is definitely a glimpse into that day.
And it won't end at just packages, you're going to see food, produce, perishables, medicine (bye bye pharmacy pickups) and many more products delivered to the home via drone.
This is without a doubt the future.
However, like every awesome idea it comes with a boatload of challenges that need to be addressed and I fear some will be extremely difficult if not impossible to overcome.
Off the top of my head, I see a few issues with Amazon Prime Air, some will be resolved, and some won't, but that's the beauty and uncertainty when taking on rather innovative approaches to existing problems.
1. The FAA situation. Drones are going to have _very_ restricted airspace especially in populated metro areas, if the FAA grants them these privileges at all. If you look at Los Angeles/SF/NYC/DC/Boston, you see airspace that is so overcrowded that I just don't see how drones are going to be zipping around here. BUT, most US cities are urban areas, so if we lose delivery to the dense metropolis, this product could work very well. Just like you see in the video.
2. Aside from airspace regulations in popular cities, you have building density, apartments/condos that will make it tough to service (unless these buildings have custom built "delivery stations" somewhere, and that's a cool idea). So it's a glimpse into the replacement of the traditional mailbox. Now that's cool.
3. Package weight will certainly be a concern but Prime Air will still cover an enormous amount of items from Amazon. And I believe Prime Air will allow Amazon to actually expand their product catalog with previously-undeliverable items via traditional freight (food, perishables, medicine, etc.)
4. Humans. Humans are always a problem. You'll have kids/idiots trying to steal and shoot these things down. This is a minor problem that won't necessarily end, but people will get in trouble and they'll pay fines/etc.
5. Safety. Safety is important, Amazon will do whatever it can to prevent kids/adults from getting sliced by these blades but I think that this is inevitable.
6. Hardware failure. Sure, 4 rotors and redundancy. But we all know a few of these things are going to drop out of the sky with a box of wrenches and slam into someones car/face/house/bike/restaurant... That won't be good. But is it even possible to ensure this doesn't happen? Boeing airplanes fall out of the sky...
7. Weather. Be in no doubt these drones will drop left and right, lose course, altitude, etc. with sudden gusts of winds, environmental factors, etc. They're getting better but it's physics at play here.
All in all there are plenty of challenges to an awesome and risky endeavor.
What I don't really understand is WHY. What's the net-gain for Amazon. Will this ever fully replace UPS/USPS shipping for them? Maybe... But it will take at least 20+ years.
I somewhat see this as an experiment for Bezos and company. The R&D and hardware costs far exceed the pennies on the dollar they pay for UPS shipping. But it has that COOL FACTOR to it. It smells like the future. Would you pay extra for 30-minute delivery? Maybe a few times... I wonder about the utility here...
- waterlesscloud 13y agoThe "Why" has to do with increasing market size for Amazon. If they can deliver small items to you in 30 minutes with no delivery fee, all sorts of things you need in the very short term stop being a trip to the store and become a drone shipment from Amazon. This opens up HUGE markets for them. I also think people are thinking of the distribution network a bit wrong. They can keep a large number of items in a small space, particularly if the warehouse becomes sort of like those old magnetic tape storage robots you used to see. You could condense an entire Wallgreen's (almost every item of which is drone-able) down to a large room. So the practicality of having a number of them in a city becomes more and more viable. Of course you'd have software optimizing for the most common items on a per-distribution center basis (I bet Amazon already does this on a macro scale). Add in long-haul robotic trucks feeding the distribution centers and you can see where this is going.
- xerophtye 13y agoYeah they can make use of the model employed by tesco in South Korea[1]. Instead of trips to the grocery store, you can just tell amazon to deliver to your place. Ran out of batteries for your remote? Amazon! Heck, Amazon Book store would benefit LOADS from this. So yes, not only does this open up new markets, it also improves their existing businesses as well. No one likes to wait. And they could cash in on that! (Not to mention it would be pretty cool receiving stuff by drones) :P [1] http://gajitz.com/worlds-first-virtual-grocery-store-now-open-in-south-korea/ http://gajitz.com/worlds-first-virtual-grocery-store-now-ope...
- prawn 13y agoBirds. I can imagine FAA approval subject to a register of drone flightpaths and locations, but if something takes a knock from a bird (or malicious interception, as you suggested), I assume that Amazon would schedule a manual pick-up and replacement, wearing the cost in the process.
- drawkbox 13y agoThe last mile, the landing, might one day be a combination of a drone and a vehicle. It can fly but land and drive up to prevent injury, and use driveable tech as well as drone tech. It would advance both fields and maybe get us to flying cars one day, of course we'll probably never fly them ourselves, just computers. Autonomous drones and delivery vehicles would be awesome.