3 ms·

>and they will be ubiquitous by 2025. aaaand you've lost me. Apologies for the snide remark, but there's no way we'll be there by that time. The industry won't

>and they will be ubiquitous by 2025. aaaand you've lost me. Apologies for the snide remark, but there's no way we'll be there by that time. The industry won't let us. Apologies for not having much reason in this post, and only stating a personal opinion without much detail to back it up, but I'm just curious to see if there's anyone that feels the same.

loup-vaillant 13y ago
> The industry won't let us. How? Because the way I see it, they will have to form a cartel to prevent one of their own from selling self-driving cars and make a huge profit at the expense of everyone else. The various legal obstacles look bigger.
dsugarman 13y ago
that's what they said about PCs
- richforrester 13y ago
  I know, and it's also what they said about holograms, personal flying machines etc. Teleporting. And yes, some of those have happened or will happen sooner or later. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, I'm just saying that this particular thing, I don't believe in. But fair enough, I didn't provide any decent information to back up my statement, so I won't ask you to either.
  - enko 13y ago
    Holograms and personal flying machines required huge technological breakthroughs to make them possible. Those breakthroughs still haven't occurred. Teleporting - questionable it's even possible. Self-driving cars are already on the streets in certain cities. Did you see the recent S-class test in Germany?[1] They're here right now, maybe not quite production-ready, but certainly in beta. There's no comparison at all. [1] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKqJccK_EkM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKqJccK_EkM
    - richforrester 13y ago
      So you think, by 2025, we'll be -as the article says- "rid[ing] in the back seat reading a book, sipping a cocktail, or sleeping as your car drives itself to your destination"? Count me skeptical. As I said, I don't think little over a decade is enough for that to happen. Since the iPhone, we've added some pixels to its screen and a fingerprint scanner to the button. Sure, in some circumstances we'll turn on this advanced version of cruise-control. But we won't be lounging while we get from A to B. Or rather, I don't believe we will.
      - enko 13y ago
        > Since the iPhone, we've added some pixels to its screen and a fingerprint scanner to the button Did you forget about the 40x speed increase? Sheesh. I bet you're not still using an iPhone 1. And no, I don't believe everyone will be being chauffeured around in their self-driving cars by 2025, but it will be an option at some price point. In fact, I expect that by 2020, if not earlier.
crusso 13y ago
"Ubiquitous" is quite a strong word. Maybe "available" would be a better word for 2025. There are just too many technical, cultural, and political unknowns to think that you'll see more than prototypes and a few early adopters within 10 years.
richforrester 13y ago
Elaborating; The optimal (most efficient, safest) way to get computer-controlled cars to work; - All drivable areas mapped (Not just the roads - EVERYTHING, since you might want to go off-road. What if; landslide, earthquake, someone digs a hole somewhere, leaves a brick on the street, etc.) - Knows where everyone is (going) at all times (privacy issue) - Has everyone on the same system (not happening within 12 years) Since I don't see these three happen, they have to be dealt with somehow. The bracketed issues are fully remedied only by the solutions written before them. Anything less will be fighting the symptoms, not the disease, and be a never-ending battle. There are so many obstacles to be overcome, so much politics to be done, so many technical challenges, so much bureaucracy ... 12 years really isn't that long.
- maxerickson 13y ago
  The actual bar for deploying self driving cars is that they are safer than some (large?) portion of humans that we already allow to drive. We don't have to do it the safest way or the most efficient way. I agree that ubiquity is unlikely, but because of cost. (A high end Mercedes can already keep itself in a lane, slow down the cruise for a slower vehicle and will override the driver trying to crash into things. These systems are environmental, they don't depend on detailed maps. http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/benz/safety http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/benz/safety And they are one of several, not way out in front.)
- discodave 13y ago
  Remember that the iPhone was released in 2007.. how much has the smartphone market changed since then. Billion dollar companies like Instagram and Snapchat have sprung up utilising that platform in only 6 years. I see what you're saying but a lot can happen in 12 years. To think about it another way, the time between the first dotcom crash and now is only 13-14 years.

loup-vaillant 13y ago

> The industry won't let us. How? Because the way I see it, they will have to form a cartel to prevent one of their own from selling self-driving cars and make a huge profit at the expense of everyone else. The various legal obstacles look bigger.

dsugarman 13y ago

that's what they said about PCs

richforrester 13y ago
I know, and it's also what they said about holograms, personal flying machines etc. Teleporting. And yes, some of those have happened or will happen sooner or later. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, I'm just saying that this particular thing, I don't believe in. But fair enough, I didn't provide any decent information to back up my statement, so I won't ask you to either.
- enko 13y ago
  Holograms and personal flying machines required huge technological breakthroughs to make them possible. Those breakthroughs still haven't occurred. Teleporting - questionable it's even possible. Self-driving cars are already on the streets in certain cities. Did you see the recent S-class test in Germany?[1] They're here right now, maybe not quite production-ready, but certainly in beta. There's no comparison at all. [1] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKqJccK_EkM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKqJccK_EkM
  - richforrester 13y ago
    So you think, by 2025, we'll be -as the article says- "rid[ing] in the back seat reading a book, sipping a cocktail, or sleeping as your car drives itself to your destination"? Count me skeptical. As I said, I don't think little over a decade is enough for that to happen. Since the iPhone, we've added some pixels to its screen and a fingerprint scanner to the button. Sure, in some circumstances we'll turn on this advanced version of cruise-control. But we won't be lounging while we get from A to B. Or rather, I don't believe we will.
    - enko 13y ago
      > Since the iPhone, we've added some pixels to its screen and a fingerprint scanner to the button Did you forget about the 40x speed increase? Sheesh. I bet you're not still using an iPhone 1. And no, I don't believe everyone will be being chauffeured around in their self-driving cars by 2025, but it will be an option at some price point. In fact, I expect that by 2020, if not earlier.

crusso 13y ago

"Ubiquitous" is quite a strong word. Maybe "available" would be a better word for 2025. There are just too many technical, cultural, and political unknowns to think that you'll see more than prototypes and a few early adopters within 10 years.

richforrester 13y ago

Elaborating; The optimal (most efficient, safest) way to get computer-controlled cars to work; - All drivable areas mapped (Not just the roads - EVERYTHING, since you might want to go off-road. What if; landslide, earthquake, someone digs a hole somewhere, leaves a brick on the street, etc.) - Knows where everyone is (going) at all times (privacy issue) - Has everyone on the same system (not happening within 12 years) Since I don't see these three happen, they have to be dealt with somehow. The bracketed issues are fully remedied only by the solutions written before them. Anything less will be fighting the symptoms, not the disease, and be a never-ending battle. There are so many obstacles to be overcome, so much politics to be done, so many technical challenges, so much bureaucracy ... 12 years really isn't that long.

maxerickson 13y ago
The actual bar for deploying self driving cars is that they are safer than some (large?) portion of humans that we already allow to drive. We don't have to do it the safest way or the most efficient way. I agree that ubiquity is unlikely, but because of cost. (A high end Mercedes can already keep itself in a lane, slow down the cruise for a slower vehicle and will override the driver trying to crash into things. These systems are environmental, they don't depend on detailed maps. http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/benz/safety http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/benz/safety And they are one of several, not way out in front.)
discodave 13y ago
Remember that the iPhone was released in 2007.. how much has the smartphone market changed since then. Billion dollar companies like Instagram and Snapchat have sprung up utilising that platform in only 6 years. I see what you're saying but a lot can happen in 12 years. To think about it another way, the time between the first dotcom crash and now is only 13-14 years.