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I'm going to buy a bitcoin after the bubble has passed. What do we think the real price is. Like $10 or $100? What's the projected bottom? I'm hoping for less t

by leokun 13y ago

I'm going to buy a bitcoin after the bubble has passed. What do we think the real price is. Like $10 or $100? What's the projected bottom? I'm hoping for less than $10, because cheaper is better. The thought that I would never be able to afford an entire bitcoin has a negative psychological effect, which may be silly. What I like about alt-coins is how one can use that for games. Imagine making a game where a custom alt-coin, a bitcoin-fork coin that has no value outside of the game, used for transactions. Seems like a cool idea to me anyway.

skizm 13y ago
To be honest I think the bottom is going to be around $500. Pretty much everyone I know who is even the slightest bit interested in bitcoin is waiting for this crash to happen so they can jump in. Just a guess though.
- terhechte 13y ago
  Yes, I've been thinking this for a long time. How should it crash if everybody is just waiting to join. As soon as it goes below a certain margin (say $600) people will flock to it, and it will go up again. At some point it will probably stay level for a couple of months, just like it did at $70. This time maybe at $400 - $600 somewhere. Actually, we may just be seeing that just this moment.
  - XorNot 13y ago
    You've just described a classic ponzi scheme - it's just decentralized. The flock of people looking to buy in allow the last group to get out of Bitcoin. Eventually you dry up the well of people who'll be able to bankroll each successive generation of "investors". There's no commerce going on with Bitcoin on any significant scale, which means it's hugely overvalued. It's just a question of how when the next group looking to buy in on a crash is significantly smaller then the people exiting due to it.
- thinkalone 13y ago
  Looks like the last time it traded below $500 was November 17th[1] - so everyone you know who is interested has only become interested in the past two weeks? [1] http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMomentumzv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30ztgSzm1g10zm...
  - skizm 13y ago
    Yep, since the spike.
tlrobinson 13y ago
Most alt-coins are thoroughly uninteresting and far less secure from 51% attacks than Bitcoin itself. It may be better to use the concept of "colored coins" on top of the Bitcoin blockchain to transact in other currencies.
wmf 13y ago
Here's an attempt to answer that question: http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/ http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-...
nullc 13y ago
> a bitcoin-fork coin that has no value outside of the game, used for transactions. Seems like a cool idea to me anyway. Unfortunately, without the right economic motivations the system isn't secure. Many altcoins have been exploited in the past. Perhaps as part of a game thats okay, but it might be hard to balance things so that the game didn't become entirely about exploiting its currency-thing.

by leokun 13y ago

skizm 13y ago

To be honest I think the bottom is going to be around $500. Pretty much everyone I know who is even the slightest bit interested in bitcoin is waiting for this crash to happen so they can jump in. Just a guess though.

terhechte 13y ago
Yes, I've been thinking this for a long time. How should it crash if everybody is just waiting to join. As soon as it goes below a certain margin (say $600) people will flock to it, and it will go up again. At some point it will probably stay level for a couple of months, just like it did at $70. This time maybe at $400 - $600 somewhere. Actually, we may just be seeing that just this moment.
- XorNot 13y ago
  You've just described a classic ponzi scheme - it's just decentralized. The flock of people looking to buy in allow the last group to get out of Bitcoin. Eventually you dry up the well of people who'll be able to bankroll each successive generation of "investors". There's no commerce going on with Bitcoin on any significant scale, which means it's hugely overvalued. It's just a question of how when the next group looking to buy in on a crash is significantly smaller then the people exiting due to it.
thinkalone 13y ago
Looks like the last time it traded below $500 was November 17th[1] - so everyone you know who is interested has only become interested in the past two weeks? [1] http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMomentumzv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30ztgSzm1g10zm...
- skizm 13y ago
  Yep, since the spike.

tlrobinson 13y ago

Most alt-coins are thoroughly uninteresting and far less secure from 51% attacks than Bitcoin itself. It may be better to use the concept of "colored coins" on top of the Bitcoin blockchain to transact in other currencies.

wmf 13y ago

Here's an attempt to answer that question: http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/ http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-...

nullc 13y ago

> a bitcoin-fork coin that has no value outside of the game, used for transactions. Seems like a cool idea to me anyway. Unfortunately, without the right economic motivations the system isn't secure. Many altcoins have been exploited in the past. Perhaps as part of a game thats okay, but it might be hard to balance things so that the game didn't become entirely about exploiting its currency-thing.