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I imagine that this would make the modularization of cars more feasible, or even necessary. E.g. a long-distance travel power train module could provide enough
by manmal 13y ago
I imagine that this would make the modularization of cars more feasible, or even necessary. E.g. a long-distance travel power train module could provide enough juice for driving cross-country (e.g. on holidays), while the commuter power train module would be lighter and less costly to rent. The car could drive itself to a hotspot where such modules are interchanged on demand. This would of course only make sense if there still is something like car ownership - if cars are only rented from central entities, then this entity would just send out specialized vehicles instead.
However, I'm not quite sold that people will give up on car ownership. Yes, there's public utilities and public transport, which is not up for individual ownership. But a car in the sense that we have it now is something more personal than a train cabin - a car's body is very close to us and we touch it all the time; we leave personal belongings there; and there is something to the fact that this car is always in front of my house/appartment, especially in emergency situations. This last point could be amended with emergency cars which are available to each apartment block, with which driving is just more expensive. Imagine crying "Help! I need a car!" and an emergency unit comes right around the corner and takes you wherever you want.
- trafficlight 13y agoI don't think we'll willingly give up on owning cars. Rather, it'll become way too expensive for the average person to own one. Once self-driving cars show a marked decrease in road accidents, insurance prices will rise. Car-as-a-Service companies will be created, making the cost of riding in a private car much cheaper than outright owning one. I'm already intending to start a car service as soon as the first cars are available.
- alexeisadeski3 13y ago>Once self-driving cars show a marked decrease in road accidents, insurance prices will rise. Huh? Edit: Just to be clear: The world you describe should see incuranse rates for self-driving cars markedly lower, with rates for driver-driven cars probably a bit lower (than current).
- goldenkey 13y agoHe means insurance prices will rise for those who choose to remain self-drivers. However, you bring up a good point, incidentally, that even if the insurance costs more for a self-driver versus auto-pilot, rates will go down for _both_ either way due to much safer roads.
- toomuchtodo 13y agoInsurance costs for human-driven vehicles will rise.
- cortesoft 13y agoI don't think that is necessarily true.. The cost of insurance is based on the average expected payout per customer... I don't think the average payout will increase, as being a human driver won't suddenly become MORE dangerous, at worst it will stay the same.
- toomuchtodo 13y agoBut what happens when the average expected payout is expected to go down? Insurance companies will expect lower loss ratios from self-driven cars, so doing something as dangerous as driving your own vehicle will carry a premium. Its very similar to how your health insurance premiums are much higher if you're a smoker. You can smoke, but you're going to be charged for this unnecessary, harmful action.
- cortesoft 13y agoOh, I have no doubt that driving your own car will be more expensive than taking a self-driving car. My point was that it wouldn't be more expensive than it currently is to have insurance (when everyone is driving their own car)
- Namrog84 13y agoI am sure lots of people said. I'll never give up rising my horse for this weirs automobile. While I agree with you a lot and I love driving. You have to think that while we will continue to enjoy driving. Think of the next generation of children who grow up in a world where they never have to start learning to drive in first place. Where they don't appreciate it the same way. And instead they go to some random driving course for a fun day of driving. Like some people go to a stables or ranch to ride horses occasionally
- philwelch 13y agoSomeone already beat you. They're called Zipcar and Uber.
- trafficlight 13y agoNot the same. At all. And I highly doubt they are coming to Montana anytime soon.
- philwelch 13y agoYou think those companies won't try and close down on that market once the technology is available? I don't think breaking the Montana market is the key to success, either.
- hershel 13y agoI don't think it's that personal in principle. There were plenty of news articles about the current generation not caring much for car ownership.
- tossmeup 13y agoI'm not sure why there wouldn't be conversion vehicles that could pull second duty on rails. For rail-less areas, it's a car on roads. When long haul/high density travel is required, merge onto rail to reduce friction and road costs. Also, we will all have subscriptions to car services that drive a car scaled to fit your current trip need to your door. Some enthusiasts will still own a manual drive car. The costs of building and maintaining roads will then be shifted to auto service conglomerates - which might end up being manufacturers as well. This will, in turn, optimize around profit margins for the services. Instead of construction firms blowing politicians, they'll be blowing the car service companies. Feasibly, you could see private spans of road. Cars can stop looking like jet cabins and will look more like mass transit or RV's. Think more like European trains. I'd be interested to see if you don't end up with multi-compartment buses that operate a bit like an elevator. Reduced cost subscriptions could involve multiple pickups along a route. Again - optimizing the bottom line of transport services. Auto brands shift market focus from consumers to fleet operators. Expect final conglomeration into verfy few brands, each with very utilitarian lines of vehicles. Interiors become focused on amenities, but also minimization of cost of ownership - more hotel than home. People will own an array of accessories to provide comfort lost from the lack of ownership. People will be guided to see those not making use as anti-social or self-centered. What will happen to shipping? Could we not bring/send autonomous service vehicles to warehouses to pick up and deliver large goods? Does this change the consumer experience from warehouse retailers and monster SUVs to smaller strips of showcase stores and/or mobile retailers that can use excess capacity of delivery vehicles to increase the value of their shopping experience? Say, ship multiple options, accessories, etc. which can be used to up-sell consumers at their home... And what about cruising? People riding around in autonomous vehicles hooking up? Need a lift? What about transport of illicit materials? Load a service car up with some goods and send it on its way. Who gets the blame? Subscription holder? Service?