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Snapchat has achieved the kind of user acceptance that only a handful of tech companies ever do. Kudos to them. However, it is a feature, not a product. The

Snapchat has achieved the kind of user acceptance that only a handful of tech companies ever do. Kudos to them. However, it is a feature, not a product. The next great thing will come along and claim its notoriously fickle user base as fast or faster than Snapchat itself arrived on the scene. The barriers to entry are so low as to effectively be nonexistent. Evan grew up rich and has family money to fall back on if he fails, so perhaps he can afford to gamble for a bigger payday. The problem is that he is gambling with the financial futures of his investors and employees as well. In my opinion, a bet that Snapchat will ever be valued at more than $3 billion is a long shot, and there is a greater-than-zero chance that the company will be worth nothing two years from now.

sillysaurus2 13y ago
However, it is a feature, not a product. Steve Jobs said that to Drew Huston about Dropbox. I think Steve believed it, too. History will show whether Snapchat is a feature or a product, because they'll either fail or succeed. But if even Steve Jobs was bad at assessing early-stage tech companies, then we outsiders probably shouldn't make categorical judgments like "Snapchat isn't a product."
- bryanh 13y ago
  You beat me by a minute!
  - sillysaurus2 13y ago
    Well, if it's any consolation: You made Zapier, and I didn't! Zapier is awesome; thank you for creating it.
    - bryanh 13y ago
      Well, myself and about 7 others so far! And thank you for using it! :-)
- hackinthebochs 13y ago
  I think history will show Jobs right in regards to Dropbox. Dropbox created a company based on the inefficiency in the marketplace regarding cloud storage and file sharing. But this has all but evaporated. With Google, Apple and MS bundling cloud/hosting apps, how can dropbox possibly differentiate themselves? There is absolutely no network effects regarding cloud storage--web links do not have vendor lock-in. I believe its only a matter of time before dropbox tanks.
  - graeme 13y ago
    What efficiency evaporation are you referring to? I use Dropbox because it works. I tried iCloud, and hit multiple points of frustration and failure. Whereas Dropbox let me transition seamlessly from Windows to OS X.
    - hackinthebochs 13y ago
      I mean inefficiency in terms of "an inefficiency in a market is a business opportunity". This inefficiency is in the process of being filled by the big players. Dropbox cannot survive as just a file sharing app in the face of bundled software from companies with deep pockets. Apparently they are fully aware of this as shown by their efforts to evolve into something more sustainable.
  - tejay 13y ago
    I really think Jobs could've been right at the time. But, Dropbox now is much more now than what it was once was. In fact, this is how most successful software companies get their start - right? They begin with very narrow product - a single feature, even. If their hypothesis proves correct, they will grow pretty rapidly in usage and in offerings.
    - hackinthebochs 13y ago
      You're definitely right. Dropbox seems to be in the process of developing their business into something much more sustainable, the link from bryanh posted below was enlightening. I believe Jobs was right about filesharing being a feature. It's up to dropbox to use their momentum to evolve into something much more.
- downandout 13y ago
  Whether they are still around in two years or not, Snapchat is still not a product in its current state. They may morph it into one, but it isn't right now. Being able to make your photos disappear is a feature that could be added to any photo sharing site (potential patent issues aside).
bryanh 13y ago
> Dropbox was a “feature, not a product,” Jobs said. In other words, they didn’t really have a business. [0] Not that I disagree about Snapchat's possibly ephemeral value, but dismissing it is a bit premature. I doubt many would say Dropbox isn't a business anymore because interesting or compelling things have a tendency of creating their own destiny. [0] http://www.wired.com/business/2013/09/dropbox-2/ http://www.wired.com/business/2013/09/dropbox-2/

sillysaurus2 13y ago

However, it is a feature, not a product. Steve Jobs said that to Drew Huston about Dropbox. I think Steve believed it, too. History will show whether Snapchat is a feature or a product, because they'll either fail or succeed. But if even Steve Jobs was bad at assessing early-stage tech companies, then we outsiders probably shouldn't make categorical judgments like "Snapchat isn't a product."

bryanh 13y ago
You beat me by a minute!
- sillysaurus2 13y ago
  Well, if it's any consolation: You made Zapier, and I didn't! Zapier is awesome; thank you for creating it.
  - bryanh 13y ago
    Well, myself and about 7 others so far! And thank you for using it! :-)
hackinthebochs 13y ago
I think history will show Jobs right in regards to Dropbox. Dropbox created a company based on the inefficiency in the marketplace regarding cloud storage and file sharing. But this has all but evaporated. With Google, Apple and MS bundling cloud/hosting apps, how can dropbox possibly differentiate themselves? There is absolutely no network effects regarding cloud storage--web links do not have vendor lock-in. I believe its only a matter of time before dropbox tanks.
- graeme 13y ago
  What efficiency evaporation are you referring to? I use Dropbox because it works. I tried iCloud, and hit multiple points of frustration and failure. Whereas Dropbox let me transition seamlessly from Windows to OS X.
  - hackinthebochs 13y ago
    I mean inefficiency in terms of "an inefficiency in a market is a business opportunity". This inefficiency is in the process of being filled by the big players. Dropbox cannot survive as just a file sharing app in the face of bundled software from companies with deep pockets. Apparently they are fully aware of this as shown by their efforts to evolve into something more sustainable.
- tejay 13y ago
  I really think Jobs could've been right at the time. But, Dropbox now is much more now than what it was once was. In fact, this is how most successful software companies get their start - right? They begin with very narrow product - a single feature, even. If their hypothesis proves correct, they will grow pretty rapidly in usage and in offerings.
  - hackinthebochs 13y ago
    You're definitely right. Dropbox seems to be in the process of developing their business into something much more sustainable, the link from bryanh posted below was enlightening. I believe Jobs was right about filesharing being a feature. It's up to dropbox to use their momentum to evolve into something much more.
downandout 13y ago
Whether they are still around in two years or not, Snapchat is still not a product in its current state. They may morph it into one, but it isn't right now. Being able to make your photos disappear is a feature that could be added to any photo sharing site (potential patent issues aside).

bryanh 13y ago

> Dropbox was a “feature, not a product,” Jobs said. In other words, they didn’t really have a business. [0] Not that I disagree about Snapchat's possibly ephemeral value, but dismissing it is a bit premature. I doubt many would say Dropbox isn't a business anymore because interesting or compelling things have a tendency of creating their own destiny. [0] http://www.wired.com/business/2013/09/dropbox-2/ http://www.wired.com/business/2013/09/dropbox-2/