4 ms·

How is the one child policy pointless? Isn't the point to keep population growth in check? Hasn't it worked?

wisty 13y ago
No ... it hasn't worked. Well, it works a little, but other strategies (propaganda, all kinds of readily available birth control) work better. Economic growth works the best. If you look at a graph of China's fertility rate (http://coolgeography.co.uk/Side%20bar%20Pages/Buttons/Index%20Buttons/clip_image002.gif http://coolgeography.co.uk/Side%20bar%20Pages/Buttons/Index%...), you can't even see the once child policy. Hint - it's after the really big drop. Fertility rates were trending down to about 2.0. Instead, they went down a little bit more (to about 1.8). A slight reduction in fertility rates isn't really worth all the problems it causes. It probably knocked the population down a bit, but on the flip-side there's tens of millions of poor angry young men with no families and nothing to lose. Which isn't great if you want a "harmonious society".
- blah32497 13y ago
  "Economic growth works the best." Well I'm sure they see this as a potential long term solution (though, outside of very advanced first world countries, this doesn't seem to hold). But in such a crowded country that seems like a luxury they can't afford in the shorter term. It seems incongruous to say that the policy has no effects on fertility rates, while leaving devastating social consequences. Are you saying that if the policy was not in place some people that are having a child now would have had none ? And that families that would have children wouldn't care about their gender? I think India is a good picture of what happens if you don't implement a one child policy. They tried to convince people to have fewer children and failed miserably.
  - wisty 13y ago
    China's fertility rate just prior to OCP was lower than India's fertility rate today. The problem of high birth rates was pretty much already solved. You might be right that it's not just economic growth, though. Literacy in women is a huge factor, and one which India lagged behind on.
anoncow 13y ago
20 million guys will not find a bride. What are we living for?

wisty 13y ago

No ... it hasn't worked. Well, it works a little, but other strategies (propaganda, all kinds of readily available birth control) work better. Economic growth works the best. If you look at a graph of China's fertility rate (http://coolgeography.co.uk/Side%20bar%20Pages/Buttons/Index%20Buttons/clip_image002.gif http://coolgeography.co.uk/Side%20bar%20Pages/Buttons/Index%...), you can't even see the once child policy. Hint - it's after the really big drop. Fertility rates were trending down to about 2.0. Instead, they went down a little bit more (to about 1.8). A slight reduction in fertility rates isn't really worth all the problems it causes. It probably knocked the population down a bit, but on the flip-side there's tens of millions of poor angry young men with no families and nothing to lose. Which isn't great if you want a "harmonious society".

blah32497 13y ago
"Economic growth works the best." Well I'm sure they see this as a potential long term solution (though, outside of very advanced first world countries, this doesn't seem to hold). But in such a crowded country that seems like a luxury they can't afford in the shorter term. It seems incongruous to say that the policy has no effects on fertility rates, while leaving devastating social consequences. Are you saying that if the policy was not in place some people that are having a child now would have had none ? And that families that would have children wouldn't care about their gender? I think India is a good picture of what happens if you don't implement a one child policy. They tried to convince people to have fewer children and failed miserably.
- wisty 13y ago
  China's fertility rate just prior to OCP was lower than India's fertility rate today. The problem of high birth rates was pretty much already solved. You might be right that it's not just economic growth, though. Literacy in women is a huge factor, and one which India lagged behind on.

anoncow 13y ago

20 million guys will not find a bride. What are we living for?