>>(By contrast, I think it is barely possible, but not particularly likely, that an international space mission with a crew from several countries may return as

>>(By contrast, I think it is barely possible, but not particularly likely, that an international space mission with a crew from several countries may return astronauts to the lunar surface by that year.) That is even less likely as no countries will spend the resources in collaboration with others(when it has already been done for starters) when the whole purpose of landing a man on the moon would be national pride. >>The big priority for China in the next decade will be opening up the political system to more dissent and more effective participation by the masses, especially the rural masses who make up the majority of the population, and avoiding the "middle-income trap" of economic growth stagnating while China is still a relatively poor country on a per-capita basis. China is already moving past the middle income gap phase, there isn't a big risk it will be stuck there. A far greater worry is economic stability and dealing with bubble forming concentrations of capital in real estate. Democratic states are fully capable of spending money on things that aren't a great use of money. India has similar goals to China and an active human spaceflight program.