4 ms·

My prediction is that bitcoins are midway through a short-lived bubble and then rapidly fall to approximately 0, and in a few years people will look back with t

by kens 13y ago

My prediction is that bitcoins are midway through a short-lived bubble and then rapidly fall to approximately 0, and in a few years people will look back with the disbelief now reserved for pets.com. The hype - get in right now and get rich, or you'll miss out and kick yourself - reminds me of 1999. My in-laws were talking about bitcoins yesterday, so bitcoins are getting the attention of the public at large; I take this as a bubble sign rather than a sign of success. Other factors: ease of switching crypto currencies to something else. Zero intrinsic value (unlike e.g. gold). Price manipulation. Risk of theft. Possibility of spectacular software bug blowing everything up. [I'm not interested in debate; I just want to give my prediction. And if I'm wrong, I will be sure to add this to my list of spectacular mistakes.]

aianus 13y ago
I wish there was a reputable market for shorting bitcoins. It'd be nice to earn some interest on my long position while providing the naysayers a chance to bet against it. It'd also help with the volatility.
- chegra 13y ago
  A business opportunity.
- a3voices 13y ago
  Shorting bitcoin seems like a bad idea. http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png
  - aianus 13y ago
    It would help if, for example, you needed to have BTC on hand for your business but you wanted to hedge away your exposure to the exchange rate with the USD.
- reginaldjcooper 13y ago
  I would be very happy if there was bitcoin shorting. It would become less volatile so we could actually use it for stuff without guessing if we are getting a 10% discount or 10% haircut compared to the next day. If there were a reputable market that did bitcoin futures I would take a very long position in bitcoin because that would make it useful for commerce and therefore incredibly valuable.
dwaltrip 13y ago
There is no such thing as intrinsic value, all value is subjective, only existing if there is a conscious being that can provide a valuation. These beings have shifting, impermanent, prefecerences, and non-uniform preferences. The many factors which affect their considerations also change quite frequently: a glass of water is worth very little when I'm boating across a large pristine lake, yet it is worth an enormous sum as I stumble across a scorched desert. BTW, the majority of gold's current market price does not stem from industrial/ornamental usage, but a collective "delusion" of monetary value (that has lasted thousands of years). Not to say gold shouldn't have any monetary value, as it is one of most useful materials in that regard. But the intrinsic value argument against bitcoin seems silly to me, given the story of gold.
- rantanplan 13y ago
  Uhh, yes there is such a thing as intrinsic value and... you just proved it! "a glass of water is worth very little when I'm boating across a large pristine lake" So you're saying that when someone is offering you 1 dollar, doesn't matter much to you, if you sleep in a bed made of dollars. No way!!! I hope you understood that water didn't lose its intrinsic value. Because you can(and want to) still drink it and it will still keep you alive. Whether you have lots of it, or none at all, your body will keep asking for its usual dosage.
  - dwaltrip 13y ago
    This only because humans need water to live, and they are the ones performing the valuation. There is nothing "intrinsic" about it. Water has very large demand that is extremely entrenched due to its biological importance. This is unlikely to change, and this confusingly may seem like some sort of intrinsic value. But it isn't. Value is an extrinsic property, meaning it stems purely from entities outside of the object itself. If humans evolved to not need any water, then perhaps they wouldn't value it at all. How can the intrinsic value of object A depend on the nature of some external object B?
    - rantanplan 13y ago
scotty79 13y ago
Would you abandon investment into networking equipment companies if your in-laws started talking about this new thing called internet? Would you abandon your investment into lcd manufacturers bacause your in-laws started talking about those thin TVs? Would your grand grand ancestor abandon his investment in railroad comapnies if his in-laws started talking about this strange horseless carriage that can only travel on pair of metal rods placed on the ground?
mercer 13y ago
What I think a lot of people are missing when comparing bitcoin to the dot-com bubble is that while it was followed by a spectacular crash, not only did the internet 'succeed' anyways, just later, a whole bunch of companies succeeded right along with it. I think there's a big crash coming, but I think that won't say much about the long-term success of bitcoin. The most likely case I see for bitcoin failing is that it's replaced by another cryptocurrency, and that's still great in my book. (I got my original investment back with btc to spare, so thankfully my finances will be unaffected either way)

by kens 13y ago

aianus 13y ago

I wish there was a reputable market for shorting bitcoins. It'd be nice to earn some interest on my long position while providing the naysayers a chance to bet against it. It'd also help with the volatility.

chegra 13y ago
A business opportunity.
a3voices 13y ago
Shorting bitcoin seems like a bad idea. http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png
- aianus 13y ago
  It would help if, for example, you needed to have BTC on hand for your business but you wanted to hedge away your exposure to the exchange rate with the USD.
reginaldjcooper 13y ago
I would be very happy if there was bitcoin shorting. It would become less volatile so we could actually use it for stuff without guessing if we are getting a 10% discount or 10% haircut compared to the next day. If there were a reputable market that did bitcoin futures I would take a very long position in bitcoin because that would make it useful for commerce and therefore incredibly valuable.

dwaltrip 13y ago

There is no such thing as intrinsic value, all value is subjective, only existing if there is a conscious being that can provide a valuation. These beings have shifting, impermanent, prefecerences, and non-uniform preferences. The many factors which affect their considerations also change quite frequently: a glass of water is worth very little when I'm boating across a large pristine lake, yet it is worth an enormous sum as I stumble across a scorched desert. BTW, the majority of gold's current market price does not stem from industrial/ornamental usage, but a collective "delusion" of monetary value (that has lasted thousands of years). Not to say gold shouldn't have any monetary value, as it is one of most useful materials in that regard. But the intrinsic value argument against bitcoin seems silly to me, given the story of gold.

rantanplan 13y ago
Uhh, yes there is such a thing as intrinsic value and... you just proved it! "a glass of water is worth very little when I'm boating across a large pristine lake" So you're saying that when someone is offering you 1 dollar, doesn't matter much to you, if you sleep in a bed made of dollars. No way!!! I hope you understood that water didn't lose its intrinsic value. Because you can(and want to) still drink it and it will still keep you alive. Whether you have lots of it, or none at all, your body will keep asking for its usual dosage.
- dwaltrip 13y ago
  This only because humans need water to live, and they are the ones performing the valuation. There is nothing "intrinsic" about it. Water has very large demand that is extremely entrenched due to its biological importance. This is unlikely to change, and this confusingly may seem like some sort of intrinsic value. But it isn't. Value is an extrinsic property, meaning it stems purely from entities outside of the object itself. If humans evolved to not need any water, then perhaps they wouldn't value it at all. How can the intrinsic value of object A depend on the nature of some external object B?
  - rantanplan 13y ago

scotty79 13y ago

Would you abandon investment into networking equipment companies if your in-laws started talking about this new thing called internet? Would you abandon your investment into lcd manufacturers bacause your in-laws started talking about those thin TVs? Would your grand grand ancestor abandon his investment in railroad comapnies if his in-laws started talking about this strange horseless carriage that can only travel on pair of metal rods placed on the ground?

mercer 13y ago

What I think a lot of people are missing when comparing bitcoin to the dot-com bubble is that while it was followed by a spectacular crash, not only did the internet 'succeed' anyways, just later, a whole bunch of companies succeeded right along with it. I think there's a big crash coming, but I think that won't say much about the long-term success of bitcoin. The most likely case I see for bitcoin failing is that it's replaced by another cryptocurrency, and that's still great in my book. (I got my original investment back with btc to spare, so thankfully my finances will be unaffected either way)