OK. I took expectation to have a specific mathematical meaning here (average including 0s). Sorry for confusion. In any case, I still don't agree with your po

OK. I took expectation to have a specific mathematical meaning here (average including 0s). Sorry for confusion. In any case, I still don't agree with your point. If everyone knows what's going to happen in the future, there's no insurance industry beyond pre-payment stamp collecting. I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing.