5 ms·

It's either ridiculously underpriced or ridiculously overpriced. Not exactly sure which yet.

oleganza 13y ago
Bitcoin is a bet that it becomes world money. If it's not broken and trust is not shaken, its target price is somewhere from 1 to 50 millions of today's dollars. When it's suddenly broken, well, people will sell off and lead the value to zero. I bet it will replace currencies, gold and silver.
- stinkytaco 13y ago
  Do you mean "currencies: gold and silver" or "currencies, gold, and silver"? Do you really believe it will replace traditional currencies? Do gold and silver have any real value (as in I can exchange them for good somewhere)? I wonder because I've noticed that generally people who bet on bitcoin as "world money" seem to forget a few things: 1. the information infrastructure necessary for bitcoin is not universal and requires constant upkeep (thus a stable political and economic climate) and 2. there are currently many currencies and the world seems to get by with them. Is there reason to believe that bitcoin's adoption will be fostered by the necessary stable political climate and if it's enough of an improvement over paper monies to replace them entirely? EDIT: I guess to summarize what now seems to be a confusing point: my dollar still work fine. What does bitcoin have that will motivate me to replace my dollars? NOTE: I hold bitcoins and will continue to hold them. I buy webhosting and a few other things with them on a fairly regular basis.
  - oleganza 13y ago
    National currencies, gold, silver and other commodities used to hedge against USD, EUR, banks etc. Our whole global economy and lifestyle enjoyed by billions of people needs computers and electricity, otherwise we go back to middle ages. People want one money - most liquid, most used one. Gold does not fly, USD is politically controlled and restricted. Bitcoin weights zero and unrestricted by design. http://blog.oleganza.com/post/54121516413/the-universe-wants-one-money http://blog.oleganza.com/post/54121516413/the-universe-wants...
    - stinkytaco 13y ago
      >Our whole global economy and lifestyle enjoyed by billions of people needs computers and electricity, otherwise we go back to middle ages. Well, "whole" is a strong word here. I would try using bitcoin in Cuba. Or Russia. Or some parts of Montana. Good luck getting a wireless signal. >People want one money I'll need a citation for this. I think instability in the Eurozone has more or less turned this idea on its head. If people wanted one money, we would have one money. The fact that major economic players either never joined the Euro or now want out indicates to me that "one money" is not a universal desire.
      - oleganza 13y ago
        I'm from Russia. There's internet even where the toilets are from 15 century full of shit. Half of Africa pays with mobile phones and lives in dirt. It's logically easy to prove. Which money would you choose to store permanently? Bitcoin if it's accepted everywhere in the world, or EUR if it's only accepted in 20 countries? Who knows where you'll be next year, so it's better to store money in a more liquid currency. Bitcoin can be it because there are no fees or capital controls like in EUR or USD. In Russia, in 1990s people were using dollars no problem. Until government went in with laws forcing people to put prices in roubles and other controls on flow of capital and cash.
        djur 13y ago
        You still need to be able to convert your BTC to a legal tender currency to pay wages, debts, and taxes. As long as that requirement exists, BTC will always be a secondary currency at best (and I'm not convinced it will ever be a currency in any meaningful way).
wahsd 13y ago
Not sure which makes me more sick to my stomach..... having not jumped on BitCoin when it first started and was around a single dollar, or the fact that putting hundreds (or thousands, by the time you read this) of dollars of my hard earned money into a non-existent, unsecured, irrational "currency" of bits that inherently are biased towards inflationary pressures due to its fixed nature. This is a bubble, clear as day! Some are not going to have a good time at some point, whenever that point comes. There is seriously something wrong with an economy when millionaires are made for nothing but being first.
- eclipxe 13y ago
  >when millionaires are made for nothing but being first. Manifest destiny.
- stinkytaco 13y ago
  >There is seriously something wrong with an economy when millionaires are made for nothing but being first. Tell that to every land speculator or homesteader who struck gold, oil or fertile land (but ignore the natives, they only complicate this). Being first is a huge part of any economy. They took the risk with their cpu cycles, electricity or money, if it's successful, they will get the payout.
  - samolang 13y ago
    And venture capitalists. The earlier you invest in anything, the bigger the risk, the bigger the returns if it pans out.
  - conanbatt 13y ago
    Risk does not equal value. I can play russian roulette for an ultimate bet and win 5$ if i dont die. It is still daunting for me, that i have bought bitcoin and made a few bucks on it, that someone that bought 10k bitcoins last year is now a multi-millionaire.
- terhechte 13y ago
  Being first is actually kinda important. Obviously (as others have noted) first to mine Gold / find oil at a spot, first to find diamonds somewhere, but more importantly: First to invent something (Automobile, Computer, Smartphone, postit, ...). In line with Henry Ford being first means doing something or inventing something, i.e. believing in something even though most others thought it was a futile or stupid attempt. When cars were invented, most people thought they were stupid and useless. Carl Benz and Henry Ford believed in cars, nevertheless. They were so smart to be among the first to believe in an idea. Same goes for the early bitcoin miners. Now you may say that the car needed to be invented, but even in early mining days, the algorithms had to be ported to the GPU, and then people build huge rigs and spend all their time coding and building the mining system even though bitcoin was still worthless. Of course, some people just installed the client and generated a couple hundred of coins, but even these, they were early believers, much like an early employee at a startup, who is willing to work for sub-par payment because the likes the idea. I really don't see the difference.

Bitcoin is a bet that it becomes world money. If it's not broken and trust is not shaken, its target price is somewhere from 1 to 50 millions of today's dollars. When it's suddenly broken, well, people will sell off and lead the value to zero. I bet it will replace currencies, gold and silver.

stinkytaco 13y ago
Do you mean "currencies: gold and silver" or "currencies, gold, and silver"? Do you really believe it will replace traditional currencies? Do gold and silver have any real value (as in I can exchange them for good somewhere)? I wonder because I've noticed that generally people who bet on bitcoin as "world money" seem to forget a few things: 1. the information infrastructure necessary for bitcoin is not universal and requires constant upkeep (thus a stable political and economic climate) and 2. there are currently many currencies and the world seems to get by with them. Is there reason to believe that bitcoin's adoption will be fostered by the necessary stable political climate and if it's enough of an improvement over paper monies to replace them entirely? EDIT: I guess to summarize what now seems to be a confusing point: my dollar still work fine. What does bitcoin have that will motivate me to replace my dollars? NOTE: I hold bitcoins and will continue to hold them. I buy webhosting and a few other things with them on a fairly regular basis.
- oleganza 13y ago
  National currencies, gold, silver and other commodities used to hedge against USD, EUR, banks etc. Our whole global economy and lifestyle enjoyed by billions of people needs computers and electricity, otherwise we go back to middle ages. People want one money - most liquid, most used one. Gold does not fly, USD is politically controlled and restricted. Bitcoin weights zero and unrestricted by design. http://blog.oleganza.com/post/54121516413/the-universe-wants-one-money http://blog.oleganza.com/post/54121516413/the-universe-wants...
  - stinkytaco 13y ago
    >Our whole global economy and lifestyle enjoyed by billions of people needs computers and electricity, otherwise we go back to middle ages. Well, "whole" is a strong word here. I would try using bitcoin in Cuba. Or Russia. Or some parts of Montana. Good luck getting a wireless signal. >People want one money I'll need a citation for this. I think instability in the Eurozone has more or less turned this idea on its head. If people wanted one money, we would have one money. The fact that major economic players either never joined the Euro or now want out indicates to me that "one money" is not a universal desire.
    - oleganza 13y ago
      I'm from Russia. There's internet even where the toilets are from 15 century full of shit. Half of Africa pays with mobile phones and lives in dirt. It's logically easy to prove. Which money would you choose to store permanently? Bitcoin if it's accepted everywhere in the world, or EUR if it's only accepted in 20 countries? Who knows where you'll be next year, so it's better to store money in a more liquid currency. Bitcoin can be it because there are no fees or capital controls like in EUR or USD. In Russia, in 1990s people were using dollars no problem. Until government went in with laws forcing people to put prices in roubles and other controls on flow of capital and cash.
      - djur 13y ago
        You still need to be able to convert your BTC to a legal tender currency to pay wages, debts, and taxes. As long as that requirement exists, BTC will always be a secondary currency at best (and I'm not convinced it will ever be a currency in any meaningful way).

wahsd 13y ago

Not sure which makes me more sick to my stomach..... having not jumped on BitCoin when it first started and was around a single dollar, or the fact that putting hundreds (or thousands, by the time you read this) of dollars of my hard earned money into a non-existent, unsecured, irrational "currency" of bits that inherently are biased towards inflationary pressures due to its fixed nature. This is a bubble, clear as day! Some are not going to have a good time at some point, whenever that point comes. There is seriously something wrong with an economy when millionaires are made for nothing but being first.

eclipxe 13y ago
>when millionaires are made for nothing but being first. Manifest destiny.
stinkytaco 13y ago
>There is seriously something wrong with an economy when millionaires are made for nothing but being first. Tell that to every land speculator or homesteader who struck gold, oil or fertile land (but ignore the natives, they only complicate this). Being first is a huge part of any economy. They took the risk with their cpu cycles, electricity or money, if it's successful, they will get the payout.
- samolang 13y ago
  And venture capitalists. The earlier you invest in anything, the bigger the risk, the bigger the returns if it pans out.
- conanbatt 13y ago
  Risk does not equal value. I can play russian roulette for an ultimate bet and win 5$ if i dont die. It is still daunting for me, that i have bought bitcoin and made a few bucks on it, that someone that bought 10k bitcoins last year is now a multi-millionaire.
terhechte 13y ago
Being first is actually kinda important. Obviously (as others have noted) first to mine Gold / find oil at a spot, first to find diamonds somewhere, but more importantly: First to invent something (Automobile, Computer, Smartphone, postit, ...). In line with Henry Ford being first means doing something or inventing something, i.e. believing in something even though most others thought it was a futile or stupid attempt. When cars were invented, most people thought they were stupid and useless. Carl Benz and Henry Ford believed in cars, nevertheless. They were so smart to be among the first to believe in an idea. Same goes for the early bitcoin miners. Now you may say that the car needed to be invented, but even in early mining days, the algorithms had to be ported to the GPU, and then people build huge rigs and spend all their time coding and building the mining system even though bitcoin was still worthless. Of course, some people just installed the client and generated a couple hundred of coins, but even these, they were early believers, much like an early employee at a startup, who is willing to work for sub-par payment because the likes the idea. I really don't see the difference.