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It seems like this is not a bubble but a storm surge, with the 'wind' being the massive amount of liquidity looking for a positive return on investment. It's d

by mtrimpe 13y ago

It seems like this is not a bubble but a storm surge, with the 'wind' being the massive amount of liquidity looking for a positive return on investment. It's disproportionately being moved into IT because it's one of the few markets that still seems to have the ability to generate a positive ROI, although that's probably been priced in already by now. That would mean that when the market recovers and 'regular' investments like housing, construction, manufacturing, finance etc. start generating returns again the current craze will just die down rather than pop like a bubble. It seems to me like the difference between hoarding tulip-bulbs during the mania to get rich vs. hoarding them during World War II to have a source of food as a last resort.

GuiA 13y ago
> That would mean that when the market recovers and 'regular' investments like housing, construction, manufacturing, finance etc. start generating returns again That's a bold assumption in itself already.
- toomuchtodo 13y ago
  Logged in just to comment on this as well. Housing and construction? We already have way too many homes people can no longer afford either do to foreclosure or income limitations. Manufacturing? Have you seen where real wages are at? Maybe business capex, but there isn't a whole lot of disposable income at the moment if you have a family and make under $100K/year. And finance. Oh finance. Like we need Yet Another Financial Product To Fuck Us. Returns? Its hard to generate returns when the majority of your population is shifting towards retirement (in the US) and the wages of your up and coming audience/consumers (18-45) are anemic at best (if there at all).
  - mtrimpe 13y ago
    It's difficult to predict what the future bread-and-butter markets will be. Let's say that IT will account for 20% of a post-recovery economy. In that case replace my enumeration of a few markets by 'whatever makes up the other 80% of the market.'

by mtrimpe 13y ago

GuiA 13y ago

> That would mean that when the market recovers and 'regular' investments like housing, construction, manufacturing, finance etc. start generating returns again That's a bold assumption in itself already.

toomuchtodo 13y ago
Logged in just to comment on this as well. Housing and construction? We already have way too many homes people can no longer afford either do to foreclosure or income limitations. Manufacturing? Have you seen where real wages are at? Maybe business capex, but there isn't a whole lot of disposable income at the moment if you have a family and make under $100K/year. And finance. Oh finance. Like we need Yet Another Financial Product To Fuck Us. Returns? Its hard to generate returns when the majority of your population is shifting towards retirement (in the US) and the wages of your up and coming audience/consumers (18-45) are anemic at best (if there at all).
- mtrimpe 13y ago
  It's difficult to predict what the future bread-and-butter markets will be. Let's say that IT will account for 20% of a post-recovery economy. In that case replace my enumeration of a few markets by 'whatever makes up the other 80% of the market.'