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Yes. And of the small number of people who believe they can do that, 99% of them can not.
by asdasf 13y ago
Yes. And of the small number of people who believe they can do that, 99% of them can not.
- dllthomas 13y agoHow do I tell? (nod to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect)
- nerfhammer 13y agoThe DKE means people rate themselves closer to average for both those below average and above average. But people below average still think they are below those at the top, just not by the amount they think.
- dllthomas 13y agoSo if I think I'm above average, I'm good?
- nerfhammer 13y agoNo, people tend to think they are above average at any task they spend time on. That's a different cognitive bias.
- dllthomas 13y agoBut my point, reinforced by the numbers I gave, is that there is overlap in the distributions between "how good I think I am" for those actually at the bottom and those actually at the top. There may well be other cognitive biases at play.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- dllthomas 13y agoFrom the Wikipedia link: "Although test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd."
- Double_Cast 13y agohttp://www.talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-and-isnt/ http://www.talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-k... A glance at the graph above should explain everything. Though many assume the slope of the "perception graph" is monotonically negative, the slope is actually positive.
- dllthomas 13y agoAh, so everyone is pulled toward the average of what people think, not the average of what people are. My reading nerfhammer as saying the latter is, I think, what is responsible for my unease with his characterization. Distributions still overlap, though.
- dllthomas 13y agoNot really here or there, but my assumption from what I'd read on the effect was "not monotonically positive", not "monotonically negative" (which would be more surprising).